12 Jun 2019
If there is one team that can provide a twist in the Premier League title race, it is Burnley.
Sean Dyche’s side have moved to within a point of safety after an upturn in form that has them seeking a third successive win at Turf Moor.
They are on a run of four games without defeat and held Pep Guardiola’s side to a 1-1 draw here last season.
City’s 2-0 win at Old Trafford on Wednesday was their 11th successive Premier League victory and should they beat Burnley, Leicester City (H) and Brighton (A), they will retain their title. The Genting Casino Premier League odds are 1/4 for the Citizens to land the crown again, with Liverpool out to 11/4.
Of course, with the League Cup already in their trophy cabinet, City could achieve a notable domestic treble, as they still have the FA Cup final to play against Watford on May 18.
With wins over Tottenham and Manchester United, City have navigated two tough opponents and with Liverpool just a point behind, Guardiola knows that the job is far from finished.
Burnley have won just one of the last 21 meetings, however – a 1-0 triumph in 2015 – and City have outscored the Clarets 18-2 in their last five meetings, having already beaten them 5-0 in two clashes at the Etihad Stadium this term.
The hosts are 18/1 to win on Sunday, but their home record is one win in the last nine against City, who have won six of those clashes (D2).
City, who have beaten four of their last five league opponents to nil, are 1/7 to win at Turf Moor and 4/6 to win to nil. The draw, which has occurred on six of the last 25 meetings, is on offer at 15/2.
TEAM NEWS
City have concerns with their midfield ahead of the trip to Turf Moor. Ilkay Gundogan, Fernandinho and Kevin De Bruyne are all doubtful through injury.
Gundogan received what Guardiola described as “a big kick on his leg” against United and Fernandinho was substituted for Leroy Sane, but both could figure. De Bruyne is likely to be sidelined.
If fit, Gundogan is set to partner David Silva and Bernardo Silva in midfield, while the front three is likely to comprise Sane, Sergio Aguero and Raheem Sterling.
Aguero (above) currently tops the Premier League scoring charts along with Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah. The Argentina striker is 7/4 to be crowned EPL top scorer and is 8/15 to score at any time against Burnley.
Riyad Mahrez and Gabriel Jesus may have to settle for a place on the bench.
Sterling has had a magnificent season, not just on the pitch but off it, and on Thursday evening was honoured with the Integrity and Impact award at the BT Sport Industry Awards for his work in tackling racism.
He is also expected to receive the PFA Young Player of the Year award, having been pipped by Liverpool’s Virgil van Dijk for the Player of the Year gong.
Sterling has also been a magnificent role model and was very reluctant to make a song and dance about buying 550 FA Cup semi-final tickets for students at his former school.
He has scored 23 goals and notched 17 assists this season – and has also been reliable, with only Ederson and Kyle Walker making more appearances for City in Guardiola’s rotation policy.
Sterling has found a killer instinct in the final third and is 17/20 to score at any time and 15/4 to score two or more against Burnley.
The Clarets are likely to be without Aaron Lennon, Steven Defour and Peter Crouch, but right-back Phil Bardsley could return after missing the last three games with a nasty gash on his leg.
TREND TO MAKE CHAMPIONS SQUIRM
Burnley will be out to maintain a remarkable record of beating the reigning champions in each of their Premier League campaigns to date.
In August 2009, the Clarets beat Manchester United 1-0 and the defending champions finished that season as runners-up, a point behind Chelsea.
In March 2015, they beat City 1-0 at Turf Moor and in January 2017 they defeated Leicester with a late Sam Vokes strike.
Last season, on opening day, they downed defending champions Chelsea 3-2 at Stamford Bridge. That is some eerie trend, one that could worry City fans.
The Clarets are 17/4 to win or draw the clash on the Double Chance market and are 50/1 to win 2-1.
The key to their recent good form has been the partnership of Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes. Wood, in particular, has been in great nick of late, with 10 goals since the turn of the year and he is a massive 4/1 to score at any time. Barnes is 7/2 to net at any stage against City.
There are usually plenty of goals when these sides meet, with no fewer than 14 of the last 17 meetings yielding three goals or more, including six of the last seven clashes. It is Evens that there will be over 3.5 goals scored and it is 2/5 that over 2.5 total goals will be achieved.
Burnley have scored in seven of their last 11 meetings at home against City and they are 6/5 to score at least once this time (over 0.5 goals).
By kick-off time, the champions are likely to be playing catch-up with Liverpool again, as the Reds host bottom-placed Huddersfield on Friday evening, but should they overcome Burnley, City will have eight days before they are in action again against Leicester.
To see all the odds on this clash, click here.
