12 Jun 2019
The scenario is simple for Brighton – a win, combined with a Cardiff defeat, would almost certainly keep the Seagulls in the Premier League and see the Bluebirds making a quick return to the Championship.
With three games remaining, Brighton hold a three-point cushion and a superior goal difference of 13 over third-from-bottom Cardiff, in effect making it a four-point gap with nine points available.
Brighton are 7/2 to be relegated, while Cardiff are 1/8 to fall.
Chris Hughton’s side were unfortunate to lose to an 89th-minute Christian Eriksen goal at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Tuesday, their fifth league defeat in six. As they had in a 0-0 draw at Wolves last weekend, Brighton defended well throughout, only to be undone by a sucker-punch right at the death.
However, the loss now means Brighton have won just three of their last 20 matches, losing 13 of them. They travel to Arsenal and host title-chasing Manchester City after this.
Cardiff head to relegated Fulham on Saturday (3pm), ahead of Brighton’s kick off against Newcastle (5.30pm). Should Cardiff win, they will surely fancy their chances when they host Brighton’s bitter rivals Crystal Palace before travelling to Old Trafford to face a flailing Manchester United side who have all but lost hope of a top-four spot after losing seven of their last nine in all competitions.
The Genting Casino Premier League football odds have Brighton at 13/10 to beat Newcastle at the Amex on Saturday.
Historically, their record over the Magpies is a good one, having won six of the last 11 meetings and losing just twice. Newcastle have won four of 11 previous visits to Brighton, but have never recorded a top-flight victory at Brighton’s home ground.
Newcastle, who lost this fixture 1-0 last season, are considered 5/2 to win this clash.
There have been four draws in 23 previous meetings and the draw is on offer at 11/5.
A 1-0 win at Leicester and 3-1 home win over Southampton has meant that Newcastle are safe in 13th place and they seek a third successive Premier League win for the first time since beating West Ham, Swansea and Stoke in August-September 2017.
Brighton have struggled mightily up front. It is now seven consecutive games in all competitions without a goal but the Seagulls are 21/10 to draw a blank this time.
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Hughton, who has always shown class and dignity as a manager, was well respected by the Newcastle faithful before he was sacked in March 2015. They were 12th in the Premier League table at the time and have rarely hit those heights since.
His diligence and professionalism means he has outlasted and out-grown bigger names, and he is without doubt one of English football’s most outstanding home-grown managerial talents.
He will again be without midfielder Davy Propper, who is likely to remain sidelined with a hamstring injury sustained at Wolves last Saturday.
Full-back Bruno and winger Jose Izquierdo could come back into the side, having missed the defeat at Tottenham, but the big plus is winger Anthony Knockaert is available after serving a three-game ban for a horror challenge on Bournemouth’s Adam Smith in their 5-0 home defeat.
Knockaert will be keen to get the Brighton faithful onside, having badly let his team down when they needed him most and he is 15/4 to score at any time and 9/1 to score the first goal.
Striker Glenn Murray (above) and winger Solly March are also likely to come back into the starting line-up after coming off the bench at Spurs on Tuesday.
Newcastle boss Rafa Benitz is unlikely to make too many chances from the side that beat Southampton, with hat-trick hero Ayoze Perez again providing much of the attacking impetus. He is 3/1 to score at any time.
Salomon Rondon, who is piquing Galatasaray’s interest with his loan spell from West Brom almost over, has scored nine goals in 28 games this season. He and Joselu offer plenty of options up front and they are respectively 11/5 and 11/4 to score at any stage.
Benitez is sweating on the fitness of Fabian Scahr, who limped off in the win against Saints and he is a major doubt. Newcastle will also be without injured trio Sean Longstaff, Florian Lejeune and Miguel Almiron.
SEAGULLS TO SOAR?
Brighton are in must-win territory now. They won’t relish going to Arsenal, who are chasing a top-four spot and will hope to be safe by the time Manchester City head to the south coast with the title in their sights.
Newcastle have little to play for, but they could influence who goes down and who wins the title, since they still have to face Liverpool at St James’ Park. They suffered a 1-0 defeat in the reverse fixture thanks to Beram Kayal’s 29th-minute strike in October and a 1-0 Brighton win is on offer at 5/1 this time. Newcastle to win 1-0 is available at odds of 7/1 and given Brighton’s lack of goals, a 0-0 scoreline is a 5/1 chance.
Tension will be palpable for the home side’s fans and, historically, there are rarely too many goals when these two clash, with just six of the last 20 meetings seeing three goals or more in total. It is 8/15 that under 2.5 total goals will be scored this time.
Just four of the last 18 meetings have seen both sides score and it is Evens that both find the net on Saturday and 8/11 that one or other fails to net.
Hughton will hope that his side don’t concede early, but if they get to half-time on level terms, you can be sure the hosts will Have to throw a little caution to the wind in the second period, although much depends on what Cardiff do at Craven Cottage earlier in the afternoon.
Regardless, Brighton to draw at half-time and go on to win the game at odds of 4/1 might tempt some.
Newcastle have not scored against Brighton in three consecutive meetings and they have never gone four games against the Seagulls without netting. They are 4/7 to win or draw the game on the Double Chance market and are 1/2 to score at least once (over 0.5 goals).
To see all the odds on this clash, click here.
