1 Jul 2019
England face USA in a FIFA Women’s Cup semi-final in Lyon on Tuesday. England, ranked No.3 in the world, had a comfortable quarter-final success over Norway, beating them 3-0 with goals from Jill Scott, Ellen White and a screamer from Lucy Bronze.
In contrast, the top-ranked World Cup holders United States had a tougher test against hosts France, coming through 2-1, with a goal in each half from Megan Rapinoe, before Wendie Renard’s header nine minutes from time reduced the deficit and gave Jill Ellis’s side a few anxious moments.
The win in front of 49.595 fans at the Parc des Princes on Friday means the USA have reached the semi-final stage in all eight Women’s World Cups and they are now 4/6 to win the tournament on the outright football odds market and retain their title.
Phil Neville’s England side have now gone over six hours without conceding a goal and have grown in confidence as the tournament has progressed. The Genting Casino football odds see England cut to 7/2 to lift the trophy in Lyon’s Olympic Stadium next Sunday.
LIONESSES TO ROAR?
France appeared to freeze in the early stages against USA, conceding after five minutes when Rapinoe’s drilled free-kick from an angle went through a sea of legs and into the net. Poor marking led to a second and while USA looked nervy in the last nine minutes, they showed enough experience to get the job done.
The USA are 10/11 to beat England inside 90 minutes, despite showing signs of vulnerability, particularly at the full-back positions, where left-back Crystal Dunn and right-back Kelley O’Hara look good going forward, but often have their defensive shortcomings exposed.
That could be an issue for the USA, with England particularly strong down the right flanks with Lucy Bronze, described by Neville as “the best player in the world” and Nikita Parris, time and again proving they are the most potent combination.
Neville could opt for playing Beth Mead down the left, as a pure left-footer would offer balance to the side and stretch the USA back four.
The Genting Casino FIFA Women’s World Cup football odds put England as the 3/1 outsiders to win the game in normal time, despite having more tactical nous than their counterparts. That’s the view of USA former goalkeeper Hope Solo, who recently stated that the USA were “winning in spite of Ellis”.
NEVILLE TO PROVE HIS WORTH?
Ellis has been under fire for her inability to make in-game tactical changes and substitutions. She has been criticised for leaving 2018 NWSL MVP Lindsey Horan out of the side in favour of Samantha Mewis and if she remains out of the side, the USA will miss her physical presence.
Julie Ertz has been outstanding in the middle of the park, while centre-half Becky Sauerbrunn has been one of the unsung heroines of this World Cup.
The USA have a solid spine, but their prowess is going forward, boasting three of the game’s elite strikers in Rapinoe, Alex Morgan and Tobin Heath, who is likely to be the outlet on the right side against England.
Neville must find a way to shut Heath down. She is the most skilful player in Ellis’s squad and England’s left flank looks more vulnerable than the right, where Bronze has been phenomenal. He has plenty of depth in the squad, who have got better since their 2-2 SheBelieves Cup draw with the USA in Nashville in March.
Last year, Heath scored seven goals and provided six assists from 10 appearances following ankle surgery and while she has yet to break her World Cup duck, she may feel she offers some value at 11/5 to score at any time.
However, Morgan, who played a lot deeper against France, is likely to play a more advanced role against England and is 11/8 to score at any time. All her five goals at this tournament came in the opening 13-0 rout of Thailand, however.
ENGLAND SHOW PERSONALITY
The USA managed 10 fewer shots than France in their quarter-final and they did not create much in the way of chances in their round of 16 tie against Spain, where three shots on target included two penalties from Rapinoe.
England have not looked comfortable when the ball is played in from corner-kicks and Morgan’s movement up front means Chelsea’s Millie Bright will have to be more disciplined than she was against Norway, where she was bailed out on a number of occasions by captain Steph Houghton, who has another superb outing.
She has been one of the players of the tournament and along with striker Ellen White, should be in the reckoning for the BBC Sports Personality of the Year awards – they are both 16/1 at the moment on the Genting Casino Specials market. Genting Casino pays one-fifth of the odds for the first three in that market. To some, that should look great value, especially if England go all the way.
The USA bid to continue a fine record of never having lost a Women’s World Cup match after scoring first, yet the Lionesses have made fast starts, having taken the lead before half-time in four of their five World Cup games.
Should the go in front again – and England are 6/4 to score the first goal – the question is whether or not Ellis has the tactical ability to change things if required?
GOING THE DISTANCE
In truth, England have ridden their luck at times and while they have managed to play out from the back on a number of occasions, they have left their fans’ nerves shredded at times. They now face a more clinical side in the United States and any errors could be punished.
There is no doubt the USA’s odds are shorter than perhaps they should be and that is justified, as they have won their last 10 World Cup games and have lost just once in their last 43 matches – a friendly defeat against France in January.
The Lionesses have never won a major women’s tournament, but they have reached their third consecutive semi-final having lost in the last four in 2015 and at the same stage in the Euro 2017 Championships.
Yet if England are not punished for mistakes, the USA have not created as much from open play in the last couple of games as expected. They can be considered flat-track bullies at this juncture, and it would not be a surprise to see the Lionesses take this into the extra period. The draw is available at 5/2 and the odds of 4/5 for England to either win or draw on the Double Chance market may tempt a few.
It is hard to see Karen Bardsley keep a clean sheet this time, but her counterpart Alyssa Naeher does not inspire confidence, so while this could be a cagey affair, this has the potential for both sides scoring in 90 minutes. The odds for that to happen are 19/20.
The United States were sloppy in possession against France at times and England have the ability and tactical awareness to take advantage, but while we expect England to score at least once, the power of the world champions coming forward means that they might just be the value at 16/5 to win but concede.
HOW TO WATCH THE 2019 FIFA WOMEN’S WORLD CUP LIVE
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