12 Jun 2019
Two Premier League clubs, each with Europa League aspirations, face off in what promises to be a fascinating FA Cup semi-final at Wembley Stadium on Sunday (4pm).
Seventh place secures Europa League football next season and Wolves currently occupy that spot, one place and one point ahead of Watford. Indeed, their goal difference is plus-one, while Watford have scored as many as they have conceded.
While West Ham, Leicester and Everton fans may disagree, there is no doubt that Watford and Wolves have been the ‘best of the rest’ outside of the top six this season.
Both have won three of their last five Premier League games and both had excellent victories in midweek, Wolves beating Manchester United 2-1 and Watford beating Fulham 4-1 to relegate the southwest London side.
Watford defeated Wolves 2-0 at Molineux in October with two early strikes from Etienne Capoue and Roberto Pereyra, and the Hornets have held the upper hand in recent meetings, losing just five of the last 22 clashes (W7 D10).
There appears to be little to split them, as the Premier League table and the Genting Casino FA Cup odds would suggest. Watford are available at 15/8 and Wolves at 8/5. The draw is on offer at 9/4. Whereas Wolves have had to overcome both Liverpool – who inexplicably fielded a weakened side – and Manchester United to get this far, Watford have not had such an arduous route, knocking out Woking, Newcastle, QPR and Crystal Palace.
Wolves have been able to mix it with the big six, winning more points against them (13) than any of the other 14 teams in the league (W3 D4 L3), but they have often played down to the level of their opponents, as a recent defeats at Burnley and Huddersfield show.
In contrast, Watford have found life a lot more difficult against the top six (W1 L9), the sole win coming against Tottenham in early September.
TEAM NEWS
Four-time FA Cup winners Wolves will be at full strength, with Raul Jimenez leading the attack. The 27-year-old striker has scored 12 times in the Premier League and has seven assists, including a hand in both goals in the 2-1 win over Manchester United on Tuesday.
This week the club announced that they will make his loan deal permanent, paying Benfica £30m at the end of the season, after he agreed to a four-year contract.
That should please fans of the Old Gold, as the 6ft 2” Mexican has struck up a successful partnership with Diogo Jota, particularly in the second half of their campaign. Jimenez is 6/4 to score at any time and 17/4 to score the first goal, while Jota is 11/5 to score at any time.
Watford, runners-up in 1984, may not be at full strength for their first semi-final since 1998. Boss Javi Gracia confirmed that Roberto Pereyra picked up a hip injury during the win over Fulham, and was substituted at half-time. Pereyra has six goals and four assists for Watford in the Premier League this season. Tom Cleverley is ruled out and Isaac Success is also an injury doubt.
However, they take winning momentum into the clash, having overcome an abject first-half display against the Cottagers on Tuesday.
Despite taking the lead through Abdoulaye Doucoure’s second goal in successive games, the Hornets were poor for much of the first half, but Javi Gracia’s decision to change formation and personnel at the break had the desired effect, and goals from Will Hughes, Troy Deeney and Kiko Fermenia put some gloss on the victory.
Watford are deemed the ‘home’ team and striker Andre Gray has scored in three of his last four home games in all competitions, coming off the bench to net the winning goal each time. Gray is 21/10 to score at any time and 11/2 to score the first goal.
WOLVES TO REACH THE FINAL?
Watford have conceded at least once in their last seven games, while Wolves have conceded In five of their last six, their sole clean sheet coming against Cardiff.
In 10 of the last 13 meetings, both sides have found the net, so it is no wonder that it is a shade of odds-on at 4/5 for both sides score in normal time. It is worth noting that in all bar one of the last 13 clashes, Watford scored at least once and they are 4/11 to do so again this time.
It is also worth stating that 10 of the last 12 FA Cup semi-finals since 2012-13 saw both sides score.
There are usually a few goals when these two meet. Nine of the last 13 meetings yielded three goals or more in total and it is 21/20 that there will be over 2.5 total goals in normal time.
Wolves last lost back-to-back games against Watford in 2005 (League Cup and League Championship) and they have lost just one of seven previous FA Cup encounters with Watford. That good record is tempered by the fact that they have been eliminated at this stage on their last four appearances, last progressing to the final in 1960.
Watford are 11/10 to reach the final, while Wolves are on offer at 4/6.
