12 Jun 2019
Manchester City maintained their march for the quadruple by beating Cardiff City 2-0 on Wednesday to move back to the top of the Premier League.
With the League Cup already in the bag and a Champions League quarter-final tie against Tottenham to look forward to, Pep Guardiola’s side continue their relentless march to silverware when they take on fellow Premier League side Brighton & Hove Albion at Wembley on Saturday (5.30pm).
The Seagulls have not been in great form of late and are battling for survival. They lost 3-0 at Chelsea on Wednesday and with just two league wins in their last 11, they have slipped to 15th place in the table, just five points off the final relegation spot, currently occupied by Cardiff.
In theory, they should be safe for another season, as they have a better goal difference than Southampton, Burnley and Cardiff who sit just below them.
Yet they have a tricky run-in against Bournemouth (H), Cardiff (H), Wolves (A), Tottenham (A), Newcastle (H), Arsenal (A) and Manchester City (H). Chris Hughton’s side are 16/1 to be relegated, while the Genting Casino Premier League relegation odds put Cardiff at 1/8 to make a quick return to the Championship.
The FA Cup has been a happy distraction for the south coast club, with wins coming at Bournemouth and at West Brom (after a replay), plus a thrilling quarter-final at Millwall, where they needed two late goals, extra-time and penalties to see off the Championship side.
City are on a run of eight consecutive Premier League wins and are 4/11 to win the title. They are a point clear of Liverpool and each has six games remaining.
The priority for Guardiola is to win the Champions League, but after making seven changes to the team against Cardiff in midweek, and with another trophy within their sights, expect City to field a strong side.
Their FA Cup run has produced a wealth of goals. City thumped Rotherham 7-0, Burnley 5-0 and came from 2-0 down to beat Swansea 3-2, averaging five goals a game.
City have won the last three meetings with Albion and the Genting Casino FA Cup odds have them at 1/8 to beat Brighton.
The Seagulls, who have won one of the last 11 meetings (D2 L7) are a derisory 20/1 to win in 90 minutes and 9/1 to qualify.
The last time these two met in a domestic cup was the 2008 League Cup at the old Withdean Stadium, where just 8,792 fans watched Brighton go through on penalties after drawing 1-1 in normal time and 2-2 in extra time. The draw is available at 15/2.
TEAM NEWS
City suffered a major blow when left back Oleks Zinchenko limped off during City’s win over Cardiff. The Ukrainian, who has been in superb form over the past few months, went down with a leg injury early in the first half and was replaced by Kyle Walker.
With Fabien Delph also currently sidelined, Guardiola is likely to ask either Danilo to play out of his natural position until Zinchenko returns, or turn to £52 million Benjamin Mendy, who has not played since January.
Brighton managed just one shot on target in their defeat at Stamford Bridge, a long-range effort from Bernardo, with fellow substitute Anthony Knockaert – on for the injured Solly March – shooting wide in added time.
Albion, who have lost all 10 of their Premier League games away against the established top six, conceding 22 goals and scoring twice, could be without March, who was forced off with a calf injury. They are also likely to be without attacking midfielder Pascal Gross.
After the Chelsea defeat, Hughton said: “I haven’t picked my team for Saturday yet. It’ll be a very difficult game for us, and we’ll be up against a lot of what we came up against tonight.
“It will have to be a team I think can do the club justice, and the best opportunity we have of getting something. Those chances are very slim.”
In truth, there are unlikely to be too many surprises. Glenn Murray will most likely lead the line and he is 7/2 to score at any time. The main question mark could be over who plays down the left-hand side for Albion. It could be a Gatean Bong and Bernardo combination, or Bernardo could play at left-back and Alireza Jahanbakhsh will continue in his recent role on the left-hand side of Albion’s attacking trio.
GOALS AT A PREMIUM?
City’s 2-0 scoreline over Cardiff barely reflected their dominance. They squandered several gilt-edged chances and found the Bluebirds’ keeper Neil Etheridge in sublime form.
History says this semi-final won’t produce too many goals. Seven of the last 11 meetings yielded fewer than three total goals and both sides found the net in just five of the last 12 clashes. It is 6/4 that there will be under 2.5 goals scored and it is 13/8 that both sides score in normal time.
This will feel more of a home game for Brighton, who have sold their 35,000 allocation. The take-up from City fans has been modest, with 25,000 sold. They have returned 2,000 extra tickets in addition to those allocated by the FA.
However, Brighton are the designated ‘away’ team – and they have never beaten City in an away fixture. The last time they met in the FA Cup was in 1983, when Brighton last reached the final. Albion recorded a 4-0 fourth-round win en route to Wembley, where they lost to Manchester United after a replay.
Their previous FA Cup meeting in 1924 saw City win a third-round tie 5-1 at Brighton. It is 25/1 that this scoreline will be repeated on Saturday.
Sergio Aguero has scored 18 goals in 17 ‘home’ games for Man City in all competitions this season, including 11 in eight so far in 2019. He was rested on Wednesday and could return to the line-up. If so, there will be a few thinking he can land the 8/15 odds to score at any time. He is 11/5 to score the first goal.
Keeping a clean sheet has been difficult for Albion when facing City in the past. Since their ’83 Cup final appearance they have managed to keep a clean sheet just once in 11 meetings (a 0-0 draw in the old Second Division in 1984). It is no surprise to see the odds of 17/2 for Albion to keep a clean sheet and it is 8/15 that Manchester City will be the only team to score.
Guardiola’s men made fast starts against Fulham and Cardiff, but in their three previous league games (West Ham, Bournemouth and Watford) and in their FA Cup win at Swansea, they failed to score in the first half. It is 16/5 that the half-time score will be a draw and City go on to win the game in normal time.
