12 Jun 2019
Championship side Millwall host Premier League Brighton in the quarter-finals of the FA Cup on Sunday with a place at Wembley assured.
Whatever one thinks about the merits of playing semi-finals at Wembley (we disapprove), walking on to the hallowed turf of the national stadium is a dream for many players and gives an added incentive to teams like these who cannot compete and ‘buy’ trophies as some of the elite do these days.
There was a time when ‘the magic of the FA Cup’ could be believed, but upsets are rare these days, thanks to the money available to Premier League clubs.
Indeed, the last team to win the FA Cup from outside of the top flight was West Ham United in 1980, a Trevor Brooking header enough to defeat Arsenal 1-0.
Millwall and Swansea (who face Premier League champions and current leaders Manchester City on Saturday) are the only two clubs left from outside the top flight.
The Genting Casino FA Cup odds have Brighton as the 6/5 favourites and, given they have eased the pressure from what was looking like an awkward relegation fight with back-to-back wins over Huddersfield and Crystal Palace, they are worthily so.
Brighton last reached the FA Cup Final in 1983, holding Manchester United to 2-2 draw (Gordon Smith having a great chance saved by Gary Bailey in the dying moments to win it) and a replay, before losing 4-0 four days later.
Millwall last reached the FA Cup final in 2004, and similarly they fell to Manchester United at Cardiff’s Millennium Stadium, by a 3-0 scoreline.
Millwall are fighting a relegation battle in the Championship and are just a point off the drop zone despite beating Birmingham 2-0 away on Wednesday evening, with both goals coming from Ben Thompson. Millwall are now as big as 6/1 to be relegated.
However, they have done well in this competition, beating Hull 2-1 before Murray Wallace’s stoppage time winner sent Premier League Everton reeling to a 3-2 defeat. Wallace was also on target in the fifth round when he knocked out West Ham’s conqueror’s AFC Wimbledon with the only goal of the game.
The Lions have reached the quarter-finals for the second time in three years, but won’t have happy memories of the last time they got here, for Spurs tonked them 6-0.
Millwall are considered 5/2 underdogs to beat Brighton on the Genting Casino football odds. The draw is on offer at 23/10.
Chris Hughton’s Brighton side have reached this stage for the second successive season by disposing of Bournemouth, West Brom and Derby, albeit rotating his squad and using several fringe players to do so.
Anthony Knockaert, who cost £3million, and £14m capture Jurgen Locadia netted in a 2-1 defeat of Derby last month, while £5.3m signing Florin Andone scored in the two previous rounds.
TEAM NEWS
Brighton will likely keep David Button in goal, as he has deputised for Matthew Ryan in the FA Cup this season. Defenders Bruno, Dan Burn, Leon Balogun and Gaetan Bong are all vying for places, but Hughton may opt for a stronger side, since they do not have another Premier League game until the end of the month due to next week’s international break.
Winger Jose Izquierdo could start for the first time since early December, but Albion will be without Yves Bissouma, who is suspended after picking up two bookings in the FA Cup this season.
With doubts over Pascal Gross, it would mean Albion’s three-man midfield is likely to be Dale Stephens, Beram Kayal and Davy Propper.
Andone will be assessed after pulling out of Saturday’s 2-1 win at Crystal Palace, having been named in the starting line-up. If he is is not fit, either Glenn Murray or Locadia will lead the line. Millwall manager Neil Harris has a virtually fully-fit squad, although he could opt again for David Martin over Jordan Archer in goal, after the 33-year-old stopper played only his second game for the club since signing in September 2017 and kept a clean sheet against Birmingham.
There is a slight doubt over Lee Gregory, who came off with a calf strain after 66 minutes at St Andrew’s, but last-round hero Murray is suspended.
SHOULD WE EXPECT GOALS?
Millwall suffered three successive defeats in the Championship before beating Birmingham, but they netted on each occasion. Indeed, they have found the net at least once in each of their last six outings in all competitions.
Brighton have found the net in each of their last seven games in all competitions, and conceded in five of their last six, so there will be a few who think that despite the magnitude of the game, goals will flow – and the Genting Casino online football odds of 10/11 for both teams to score may appear tempting.
Brighton have won just two of the last 10 meetings with Millwall (D6 L2) and five of those meetings were score-draws. It is 10/3 that the match will end in a score-draw again.
Millwall can be backed at 8/13 to either win or draw the game or at 11/8 to win, draw no bet.
However, the Seagulls have a fair recent record at the New Den, having been unbeaten in their last six visits (W3 D3) and scoring at least once on five of the last six visits. Brighton are 5/4 to score over 1.5 goals and given Millwall’s shaky defence, that will seem manageable to many bettors.
None of the last 11 meetings has seen one or other side win by more than a single-goal margin and therefore those looking at the correct score markets might plump for either a Brighton win by 2-1 at odds of 8/1 or a Millwall win by the same score at odds of 11/1.
The game will be shown live on BBC1 at 2pm on Sunday, March 17.
For all the odds on this big game, click here.
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