12 Jun 2019
Arsenal take a healthy 3-1 first-leg lead to the Mestalla Stadium as they attempt to book their place in the Europa League final on Thursday.
Two goals from Alexandre Lacazette and another from Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang saw the Gunners come from behind to beat Valencia at the Emirates Stadium last week.
That victory was followed by a tame draw against Brighton in the Premier League and it cost Unai Emery’s side’s hopes of gaining a top-four place. It now means Arsenal must win this competition in order to qualify for next season’s Champions League.
The Genting Casino Europa League odds for Arsenal to do just that are 15/8.
Valencia were in much better form on Sunday, smashing six past Huesca on the road. Los Che are 7/1 to win the Europa League.
Arsenal have lost four of their last six domestic games and won just one of them. The Gunners have never lifted this trophy and their last continental triumph came in the 1994 Cup Winners’ Cup.
While Emery’s side has eclipsed the total of points they gained last year, amassing 67 this term with one game still remaining (they managed 63 last season), the elephant in the room is their away form.
At the Emirates, Arsenal have won 45 of their 67 points this season, but on the road, they have accumulated just 22 points, while eight of their 10 league defeats have come on the road. For context, Leicester, Crystal Palace, Wolves and Watford all boast better away records, and that is why the Gunners have failed again to guarantee Champions League football via the Premier League.
The Gunners are one of only two league sides who have failed to keep a clean sheet on the road this season – the other is Ipswich, who have been relegated to League One.
While Arsenal coasted through the group stages of the Europa League, they struggled in both away legs of their first two knockout-stage ties. They lost 1-0 to BATE Borisov in the round of 32 and 3-1 to Rennes in the last 16, before overturning both at home.
They did, however, gain a 1-0 win in Napoli in the quarter-finals, having beaten the Italian club 2-0 at home in the first leg, but their domestic form since going through (three defeats and a draw) means there is plenty of work to be done at the Mestalla.
For all their attacking prowess, Emery’s defence remains suspect and the Gunners are 14/5 to win at Valencia.
The hosts are currently fifth in LaLiga, three points behind Getafe in the race for the final Champions League spot. They defeated Villarreal 5-1 on aggregate in the quarter-finals, having previously knocked out Krasnodar and Celtic.
Los Che have also reached the final of the Copa Del Rey, where they will meet Barcelona on May 25.
Valencia, who grabbed a vital away goal in London, are 10/11 to beat Arsenal. The pair have clashed six times, with Arsenal winning twice, but losing on two occasions, including the 1980 UEFA Cup Winners’ Cup final (on penalties). They drew two other meetings and it 14/5 that the second leg will end in a stalemate.
TEAM NEWS
Aaron Ramsey has already said farewell to Arsenal. His hamstring injury will keep him out for the rest of the season and he is off to Juventus next term.
Denis Suarez will also play no part. He has a groin injury which has ended his season and it is doubtful the Gunners will bring him back for a second loan spell next season.
Hector Bellerin, Rob Holding and Danny Welbeck are also sidelined.
Valencia manager Macelino Garcia Toral has done well to keep his side into contention in LaLiga and in the Europa League.
However, defensively, they are struggling. They have not kept a clean sheet in seven domestic games and they have managed just one shutout in their last five European ties.
Marcelino may opt to keep a back four against the Gunners, following their 6-2 win over Huesca. It is possible that Mouctar Diakhaby will drop to the bench in favour of Ezequiel Garay, who is poised to return to the centre of defence.
Goncalo Guedes is likely to have a wide role this time with Santi Mina restored to a central striking riole, having not managed to hit the net in his last five European outings. Mina is 15/8 to score at any time.
GUNNERS END ROAD WOES?
It seems a while since the Gunners kept clean sheets in five of their six group games and they only dropped points when held 0-0 by Sporting Lisbon. Arsenal are 4/1 to keep a clean sheet on Thursday and are 6/1 to win to nil, as they did at Napoli.
Valencia, who won this competition in 2004, have conceded late goals in each of their last three outings and late goals have also been a feature of Gunners’ games, with goals coming between the 77th and 90th minutes in three of their last five matches. It is 17/20 that there will be a goal scored between the 76th and 90th minute on Thursday.
Valencia need to score at least twice to have a chance of going through and they are 7/10 to score over 1.5 goals in normal time.
Arsenal, who managed to score at least one away goal in three of their last four outings (Wolves, Watford and Napoli), will rely upon Aubameyang and Lacazette to deliver. They have contributed seven goals and two assists from their last six outings and 13/10 and 17/10 respectively to score at any time.
The Gunners are 5/6 to either win or draw in normal time on the Double Chance market.
Arsenal have shown they can defend a lead away from home and after going out of this competition at this stage last season, losing 1-0 at Atletico Madrid, many of their players will have learned from that experience.
Valencia may find a way to win, but if Arsenal score – it is 1/3 that they do just that – then Valencia will have to score four to go through. A 2-1 Valencia win is on offer at 15/2 and both teams to score is available at 8/15.
To see all the odds on this clash, click here.
