12 Jun 2019
Arsenal head to the Stadio San Pedro on Thursday, hoping to protect their 2-0 Europa League quarter-final first-leg lead.
An own goal form Kalidou Koulibaly added to Aaron Ramsey’s early opener, as the Gunners moved a step closer to a semi-final berth with the win over Napoli.
In truth, they should have had more than a foot in the semi-final as they failed to kill off the Italians, who managed just a couple of worthwhile chances, both snuffed out by Petr Cech.
Arsenal are now 3/1 second favourites behind Chelsea (13/8) to lift Europe’s secondary club trophy, while Napoli are out to 6/1.
Carlo Ancelotti claims he is still “confident” of lifting the trophy. To do that, Napoli must do something they have not managed to do since lifting the 1989 UEFA Cup – overturn a first-leg deficit.
They have crashed out in their last eight European knockout ties having trailed from the first leg and yet the Genting Casino Europa League second-leg odds have the Italians at 4/6 to beat Arsenal.
Napoli are unbeaten at home in Europe this season, winning four of their five matches, scoring 10 goals and conceding just two, but plenty more was expected of Ancelotti’s side, who managed nine points from a tough Champions League group that included Liverpool, PSG and Red Star Belgrade.
They dropped into the Europa League after a third-place finish and having eased past FC Zurich 5-1 on aggregate, they beat Red Bull Salzburg 4-3 over two legs in the round of 16.
Arsenal have been far from happy away from the Emirates Stadium, though. Ahead of that first-leg clash, they won just two of their last 12 on their travels – against Blackpool in the FA Cup and at relegated Huddersfield Town in the Premier League.
They stopped the rot somewhat by winning 1-0 at Watford on Monday night, but European defeats at BATE Borisov and Rennes do not read well ahead of this second-leg, and it is no shock to see Arsenal’s Genting Casino Europa League soccer odds at 15/4 to win in Napoli.
That win over Watford, courtesy of a lucky strike from Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, put the Gunners back into fourth place in the table and firmly in the race for Champions League football next season. They are 1/2 to finish in the top four, with third-placedTottenham at 2/7. Chelsea are out to 13/8 following their 2-0 defeat at Liverpool, while Manchester United are on offer at 11/4.
TEAM NEWS
Napoli will be without Amadou Diawara and Raul Albiol, as they were in the first leg in London, and there could be change up front. Arkadiusz Milik could get a run-out again – he scored in Napoli’s 3-1 win at Chievo on Sunday – as Dries Mertens and Lorenzo Insigne were ineffective and got little service in the first leg.
It is unlikely that Insigne will make way, as he has scored 13 goals and seven assists this season and is 13/10 to score at any time.
Ancelotti could also make a change at right-back, with Eiseid Hysaj making way for Kevin Malcuit.
Arsenal, who knocked out CSKA Moscow at this stage last season (6-3 on aggregate) before falling to Atletico Madrid in the semi-finals, may have to do without Lucas Torreira, who suffered a groin injury against Watford.
While manager Unai Emery feels the Uruguayan may be fit enough to play, he could be rested, as Matteo Guendouzi is available.
Alexandre Lacazette could return after sitting it out at Vicarage Road and he could be the lone striker, with Aubameyang likely to be on the bench. Mezut Ozil is also in line for a return, along with Cech and Granit Xhaka.
Ramsey, who is joining Juventus on a free transfer at the end of the season, will again be keen to impress, having landed the 7/2 odds to score at any time in the first leg. He is 15/4 to repeat the trick.
GUNNERS PROGRESS?
Despite Juventus slipping up in Serie A on Sunday, Napoli are still 17 points behind the ‘Old Lady’ and the title has long gone.
Ancelotti’s men have not been in great form. They have won just three of their last eight in all competitions (D2 L3) and while Arsenal have not travelled well, their 2-0 win in the first leg was the 17th occasion they have won the first leg of a major European knockout match by two or more goals – and they have progressed on each of the previous 16 occasions.
A draw – which is on offer at 3/1 – would be more than good enough to see the Gunners progress. Napoli have conceded in each of their last eight games and it is 2/5 for Arsenal to score at least once (over 0.5 goals), and 4/7 for both sides to score, which looks a trend worth exploring when you consider that eight of the last 10 games involving the hosts saw both sides net.
Given Napoli’s modest recent form and Arsenal’s potential to hit the hosts on the counter-attack, some may feel that the Gunners may be good enough to get a draw or a win, and the combined odds on the Double Chance market are a tasty 21/20 for that eventuality.
The Partenopei, who have won five of their seven home fixtures against Premier League opposition, have seen seven of their last 11 games yield three goals or more. It is 4/7 that over 2.5 goals will be scored in this clash – but Arsenal know that one goal may be enough to see them through.
For all the odds on this tie, click here.
