12 Jun 2019
Liverpool’s quest to go one better in this season’s Champions League campaign than last year took a giant stride forward last week when they coasted to a 2-0 quarter-final first-leg win over Porto.
Last season they reached the final only to fall to Real Madrid, but the Genting Casino Champions League odds now have Jurgen Klopp’s side as 10/3 fourth favourites to win the competition. Porto are the rank outsiders at 200/1 as they try to turn around the deficit at the Estadio do Dragao on Wednesday evening.
Both teams could win their respective leagues, although both are involved in tight domestic title races.
After losing at Anfield, Porto won 3-0 at Portimonese on Saturday. That win and Benfica’s subsequent victory over Vitoria de Setubal means both are level on points, with Benfica ahead on goal difference.
Porto have a fine home record, losing just two of their last 14 and winning 12. They have kept five clean sheets in their last seven at home and Sergio Conceicao’s side are 5/2 to beat Liverpool and 11/4 to keep a clean sheet.
Liverpool earned a 2-0 win over Chelsea to go back to the top of the Premier League table and they are now 6/5 to win the title, with Manchester City still favourites at 8/11. City have a game in hand and while two points behind, they have a superior goal difference.
However, while Liverpool seemingly overcame their toughest test with the win over the Blues, City still have to face the likes of Tottenham (H), Manchester United (A), Burnley (A) , Leicester (H) and Brighton (A) in their bid to retain the title.
Liverpool have a far easier run-in, with clashes against Cardiff (A), Huddersfield (H), Newcastle (A) and Wolves (H), so it is a wonder that their respective title odds are not reversed.
After all, Liverpool have to play less games, already have the points in the bag and do not have nothing to lose as they bid for their first title in 29 years.
The Champions League has been a happy distraction for Klopp’s side, who are 11/10 to win in Porto. The hosts, who knocked AS Roma out in the last round, will take heart from the fact that Liverpool still look vulnerable at the back, despite keeping a clean sheet against Chelsea.
Eden Hazard uncharacteristically spurned two golden chances and for all Liverpool’s dominance, the Reds could easily have been pegged back. It was the same case against Tottenham a couple of weeks ago.
Liverpool conceded in each of their last five outings before beating Porto and Chelsea, and it is 4/9 that Porto score at least once (over 0.5 total goals).
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Porto missed the rugged Pepe, who was suspended for the first leg, and he returns at the Dragao, where Liverpool won 5-0 last season en route to the Champions League final.
Hector Herrera will also return to the side after serving a ban and the lively Yacine Brahimi could also figure in the second leg. He may be a more effective foil for Moussa Marega, who has scored six goals for Porto in the Champions League this season. Marega is 11/5 to score at any time, while Brahimi is 10/3 to get on the scoresheet.
Liverpool left-back and Scotland captain Andrew Robertson returns to the line-up after missing the first leg through suspension, and while Jordan Henderson came off with a knock in the Reds’ win on Sunday, Klopp insists he should be fine to play some part, although Gini Wijnaldum offers a little more balance to the side and he could be preferred.
Klopp’s midfield rotation policy has served Liverpool well and it could be that Dejan Lovren may take Joel Matip’s place in the side on this occasion.
Liverpool’s Sadio Mane is likely to partner Mo Salah up front and the pair are respectively 6/4 and 7/5 to score at any time.
Roberto Firmino, who has scored three Champions League goals and assisted one this season, is always likely to cause problems. He has weighed in with 12 goals and six assists in the Premier League, and is 2/1 to score at any time and 11/2 to score the last goal.
REDS ON A ROLL?
While Porto are the only remaining side in the competition to have a 100 per cent record at home (winning all four). They last won five or more straight home games in European competition between October 1998 and December 1999.
Yet Liverpool will be confident of getting a result, since they have won three out of four away games in the Champions League knockout stages since the start of the season, losing only to Roma during that period.
Liverpool have progressed in all nine of their previous two-legged European knockout ties under Klopp and the Reds are 1/33 to reach the semi-finals and set up a clash with either Manchester United or Barcelona. Porto are 12/1 to go through.
Liverpool have never lost to Porto in seven previous meetings. The Reds have a W4 D3 record in six meetings overall and the draw is available at 5/2.
Only two of those previous seven clashes saw more than two goals scored and it is 10/11 that there will be over 2.5 goals scored in normal time. Likewise, both sides have scored in just two of their previous meetings and it is 19/20 for one or other team to draw a blank this time.
Porto have failed to score in five of those meetings and Liverpool are 12/5 to win to nil and 13/8 to keep a clean sheet.
Given Liverpool’s penchant for late goals – they scored in the last 10 minutes against Fulham, Tottenham and Southampton – the 4/1 odds for a draw at half-time with Liverpool going on to win, might tempt some bettors.
For all the odds on this tie, click here.
