12 Jun 2019
If Liverpool are to have designs on reaching a second successive Champions League final in Madrid on June 1, they will have to overturn a 3-0 first-leg deficit at Anfield on Tuesday evening.
Liverpool played well at the Camp Nou last week, but after squandering several good chances, two late strikes – including a perfectly executed free-kick from Lionel Messi – gave Barcelona a healthy lead to take back to Merseyside.
Liverpool are out to 20/1 to win the Champions League, while Barcelona have been clipped to 2/5 to win the tournament for the sixth time and the first since 2015.
They are naturally 1/25 favourites to reach the final which will be held at the Wanda Metropolitano, home of Atletico Madrid – rivals of Real Madrid, who have won this title for the past three years. Liverpool are 10/1 to reach the final.
Barcelona have already secured Spain’s LaLiga title, while Liverpool strengthened their chance of landing a first English league title in 29 years with a somewhat fortunate 3-2 win at Newcastle on Saturday evening – again needing help from a controversial decision to secure the win.
Generous officials gifted the Reds a ‘ghost’ free-kick which led to Divock Origi’s headed winning goal four minutes from time. Assistant Simon Long made referee Andre Marriner’s mind up for him, obviously seeing something that the 52,206 fans did not, and awarded Fabinho’s swan-dive under pressure from Matt Ritchie a 10 out of 10 for elegance and plaudits from former Liverpool defender and Sky Sports pundit Jamie Carragher, who said the Brazilian was “clever”.
Other words would have sufficed, such as ‘deceptive’ or ‘dishonest’, but Carragher appears to have no space for a varied vocabulary in his wardrobe.
Liverpool, who face Wolves at home in their final Premier League game on Sunday, are 7/2 to win the title. Manchester City, who simply need to beat Leicester at home (Monday) and Brighton away (Sunday) are 1/6 to retain their title and could pip the Reds by a single point.
While the Reds got out of jail on Tyneside, they face an uphill battle and need something of a miracle to reach the Champions League final.
They are very capable of scoring three goals in 90 minutes, but should Barcelona score an away goal, the tie could be out of reach. The Genting Casino Champions League odds see Liverpool at 6/5 to win in 90 minutes – and Jurgen Klopp’s side are unbeaten in their last 19 matches at Anfield (W16 D3). They are 4/11 to win or draw the game.
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Barcelona manager Ernesto Valverde rested his entire starting XI against Celta Vigo at the weekend and Barca lost 2-0, their first LaLiga defeat since November.
While the result did not matter, Ousmane Dembele suffered a hamstring injury and he is unlikely to be an attacking option for Valverde. Instead, former Liverpool man Philippe Coutinho could start and, while he was kept quiet in the first leg, he may have more space in between the lines as Liverpool have to push for goals. Coutinho is 16/5 to score at any time and 10/1 to score the first goal.
Barcelona will, of course, rely upon another former Liverpool man, Luis Suarez, who scored the first goal at the Camp Nou, to spearhead their attack. Suarez is 6/4 to score at any time.
Messi, who has scored 12 Champions League goals this season, has netted 26 goals against English sides in this competition in total, and is 21/20 to score at any time and 9/2 to replicate his first-leg brace and score two or more.
Liverpool will again be without Roberto Firmino, who was badly missed in the last two games. Klopp confirmed that he is set to return from a muscular injury sustained in training against Wolves on Sunday.
Liverpool must also do without striker Mohamed Salah, who was stretchered off midway through the second half of the clash with Newcastle at St James’ Park following a collision with Martin Dubravka. Salah’s head smacked into the goalkeeper’s hip, but while he was said to be fine after the game, the Egypt skipper will miss out because of the concussion protocol.
GOALS TO FLOW?
Barcelona and Liverpool have met nine times, with the Blaugrana winning three and Liverpool winning three. Liverpool have lost three of the last five meetings (W1 D1) and Barcelona are 2/1 to win at Anfield.
Only three of those nine meetings yielded three goals or more in total and it is 5/4 that under 2.5 total goals will be scored in Tuesday’s clash.
Liverpool have managed 52 goals at home this season and they will have to take risks, so the prospect of Barcelona providing an attacking counter-punch is strong and it is 4/7 that over 2.5 goals will be scored in total.
Only three previous meetings saw both sides score and it is 1/2 that both find the net again.
Barcelona won on their last two visits to Anfield and Liverpool have been successful just once in four home meetings with them. Barcelona are 6/5 to win (draw no bet), while Liverpool are 5/2 to win but concede, and 18/1 to win 3-0, which would mean extra time.
Given the advantage Barcelona have, Liverpool need to go for goals and the 4/5 odds for the Reds to score two or more (over 1.5 goals) will certainly interest some. Whether they can win to nil and land the 16/5 odds for that to happen, is open to question.
Those who feel there will be plenty of goals might like to take the 6/1 for both teams to score in both halves, or for four to six total goals at 8/5, but that outcome has only been achieved once in nine previous meetings.
To see all the odds on this clash, click here.
