6 Sept 2019
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Following a defeat away in Italy on the opening day, Finland have won all four of their qualifiers without conceding a goal. They’re quite a conservative team with each of these games ending 1-0 or 2-0 and in fact, either they or their opponents have triumphed by one of those two scorelines in each of their past 13 matches now since June 2018.
Given the way Italy laboured to a win away in Armenia on Thursday, where they were on course for a stalemate before netting twice in the final 13 minutes, we can easily see this being a low-scoring affair.
Indeed, the Azzurri have seen under 2.5 goals land in 15 of their 21 fixtures dating back to September 2017 now, while of course historically they hold a reputation for defensive prowess, most famously the catenaccio tactical system.
Italy Favourites
The visitors may have won all five outings to take supreme command of the group, but Finland have pulled five points clear of the next best team – the much more fancied Bosnia-Herzegovina.
The Nordic outfit have never qualified for a major tournament and it could be a long time before another opportunity like this comes around, though success will likely hinge upon results elsewhere with the Italians heavy favourites to make it six from six under Roberto Mancini in these qualifiers.
Finland will point with pride to nine wins from their last 12 fixtures, though it must be said that other than the Italians, the best team they’ve faced over this period was Bosnia.
In fact, the Finns have rarely encountered any of the big guns of international football in recent times, with World Cup qualification pitting them against the likes of Iceland, Croatia and the Ukraine, while in the qualifiers for Euro 2016, Northern Ireland and Romania took the top two spots.
Italy 2-0 Correct Score
Limiting the hosts’ results to just include matches against the elite sides they’ve faced, six of 12 have finished 2-0 to their opponents as only once did they concede more than two goals.
That sample is of matches against Belgium, Croatia, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain since March 2011. With that in mind, the 2-0 correct score is certainly appealing.
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