21 Jul 2020
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Another defeat on Sunday hosting Southampton means Bournemouth have it all to do on the final day of the season. Indeed, they need both Villa and Watford to slip up, with those two playing at West Ham and Arsenal respectively as they currently trail both sides by three points.
It’s hard to imagine neither of their rivals getting anything from their fixtures and the current price of 1/33 for them to get the drop says all you need to know.
Everton could well do them a favour though. Carlo Ancelotti’s men are level on points with Southampton in 11th and with it impossible for them to break into the top half, one or two might have turned their attention to the holidays while a couple of youngsters might get a chance.
In fact, the Merseyside club have managed just three victories in 11 outings, but it will still no doubt be a tall order to overturn them at Goodison Park.
Over 2.5 Goals
A record of five wins from 11 unbeaten outings there since the start of December is impressive, especially considering the Toffees beat both Chelsea and Leicester, whilst holding Arsenal, Man Utd and local rivals Liverpool to stalemates.
Interestingly, six of their last seven here have seen both sides get on the scoreboard, with Richarlison (3) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (3) the main goal scoring benefactors across these and so we could see a few goals on the cards.
Only Norwich have picked up fewer points than the Cherries on the road this season, while their 14 defeats is the joint worst with the relegated club and it’s hard to fathom how they’re going to turn that form around.
With that in mind, we’re happy to avoid the outright market as they may well play out of their skin given the circumstances, but that theory only supports the goals route more.
Given they’ve now seen more than two goals in five of their last six trips, all of which came against the more competitive sides outside the bottom six, it looks like it could head that way again.
Furthermore, in the previous five Premier League seasons, Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 65% of final day matches compared to 53% for the rest of the remaining matches, while for Over 3.5 Goals it increases from 30% to 45% for final day matches.
To make matters worse for Eddie Howe, he might be without his star defender Nathan Ake for a third game on the bounce, and in the eight without him this term they’ve lost six of them (75%), while that is a much reduced 55% in the 29 with him.
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