13 Mar 2020
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Liverpool have endured their worst form of the season ahead of the Merseyside derby. Champions League and FA Cup exits to Atletico Madrid and Chelsea have left the Premier League as their only obtainable trophy, while a shock 3-0 defeat at Watford has denied them the chance to lift the title in front of their bitter local rivals here.
Although results have been largely positive under Carlo Ancelotti, the Toffees have now lost two of three winless matches, even if they had tough fixtures against Arsenal, Man Utd and Chelsea.
The manner of their 4-0 defeat against the latter last time out has to be a concern however, continuing a long series of poor results against the ‘Big Six’.
Indeed, they’re a miserable W4-D12-L23 since 2017/18 across all competitions when facing those sides or this season’s Leicester, though on home turf alone this record becomes W4-D7-L7.
Under 2.5 Goals
Since Marco Silva left the dugout, they’re a slightly better W1-D4-L4 in those games, though four of these matches came under caretaker Duncan Ferguson and Ancelotti has lost four of five winless such matches to date.
That includes a 1-0 defeat against an extremely weakened Liverpool themselves in the FA Cup at Anfield in early January, and this has become an extremely low-scoring affair in recent times.
There have been fewer than three goals in nine of 13 head-to-heads since 2014/15, with four of five since April 2018 featuring just one strike or less.
In fact, all five clashes at Goodison Park over this period have been low-scoring affairs, with three ending goalless, another a 1-0 win to the Reds, as the most explosive clash ended 1-1.
We’re surprised to see under 2.5 goals at odds-against then, especially as 11 of Liverpool’s last 17 outings over 90 minutes have gone under that threshold since just before the turn of the year.
Liverpool To Beat Everton 1-0
The attack isn’t firing on all cylinders with just two of these games seeing them score more than twice, against bottom-seven outfits Southampton and West Ham, who incidentally hold two of the division’s worst four defensive records this term.
Given the Liverpool 1-0 correct score was the most common outcome across those 17 matches, occurring on five occasions, it definitely looks worth a flutter.
Divock Origi is the only player to score more than once across the last seven Merseyside derbies, and has in fact netted more goals against the Toffees than any other team with five goals from seven appearances for the Reds.
However, he started five of those games, which is unusual in itself as the Belgian rarely gets more than 10 minutes from the bench.
However, he’s ridiculously short at the prices given he’ll probably find himself down the pecking order behind Mo Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino here.
0.5pts: Liverpool 1-0 Correct Score At 7/1
ALL ABOVE PRICES ARE CORRECT AS OF 09:30 13/03/2020 AND ARE SUBJECT TO FLUCTUATIONS
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