12 Jun 2019
Arsenal must attempt to claw back a 3-1 first-leg deficit against Rennes on Thursday night if they are to progress to the last eight of the Europa League.
History is against the hosts. Since the start of the competition in 2009/10 season, only one club has qualified from the knockout stages having overturned a 3-1 deficit from the away leg – Fulham, who beat Juventus 4-1 at Craven Cottage, having lost 3-1 in Turin.
Yet Sunday’s 2-0 Premier League win over Manchester United was not only a bounce-back performance of quality that put them within a point of third-placed Tottenham, it also meant they are in the top four again and on course for next season’s Champions League.
The Gunners were 15/8 to make the top four last week and are now in to 5/6. As stated last week, they have a significantly easier run-in than the teams directly below them, Manchester United and Chelsea, so that price may still represent a little value, especially since Tottenham appear to be in free-fall. Two places are now up for grabs, rather than the one place that looked the case three weeks ago.
But domestic rivalries are put aside on Thursday, as Arsenal entertain French Ligue 1 side Rennes, who look to protect their two-goal first-leg advantage secured against the 10-men Gunners through Benjamin Bourigeaud, Ismaila Sarr and an own goal from Nacho Monreal.
Alex Iwobi’s early strike means Urai Emery’s side have a valuable away goal, which means a 2-0 victory or better would be good enough to see the Gunners through.
However, the Genting Casino Europa League football odds suggest that Arsenal are clinging on in the competition. Last week, they were 5/1 third favourites to lift the trophy, but now they have drifted to 7/1, behind Napoli (5/2) and Chelsea (13/5).
Rennes, who are in to 28/1 to win the competition, have been in great form since the appointment of Julien Stephan, who replaced struggling Sabri Lamouchi. They currently sit eighth in Ligue 1, having brushed aside struggling Caens 3-1 on Sunday, their fifth successive match unbeaten in all competitions (W4 D1).
As with the first meeting against Arsenal, who were shambolic defensively when Sokratis Papastathopoulous was sent off for a plethora of cautionable offenses, Rennes went a goal down and saw Caens reduced to 10 men before half-time, before coming back to win.
The Genting Casino football odds have Arsenal at 3/10 to win the second-leg, while Rennes are priced at 17/2. The draw is on offer at 9/2.
TEAM NEWS
Arsenal have striker Alexandre Lacazette back, after his suspension for being sent off against BATE Borisov in the previous round was reduced. However, it is likely that Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang will still start, and he is 6/10 to score at any time and 23/10 to score the first goal.
Arsenal could be without Laurent Koscielny who suffered a leg injury in the win against Manchester United and with Sokratis serving his one-match ban following his two yellow cards in the first leg, both of which came inside the opening 41 minutes, Emery will be forced into a defensive reshuffle.
Henrikh Mkhitaryan missed Sunday’s win over his former club with a lower back problem, but may recover in time for Thursday’s match. Lucas Torreira seems certain to start as he is fresh from serving a domestic ban. Hector Bellerin, Rob Holding and Danny Welbeck are still long-term absentees.
Rennes have no major injury concerns and James Lea Siliki is expected to return after recovering from injury. Benjamin Andre is another option for Stephan after sitting out the win over Caen.
GUNNERS GO THROUGH?
No matter what the result on Thursday, Rennes have achieved their best showing in Europe in the club’s 117-year history. The Red and Blacks recovered from three successive group-stage defeats to claim the runner’s-up spot behind Dynamo Kiev, courtesy of victories at Jablonec and at home to Astana in must-win games.
It must be remembered that while Arsenal had excuses for the first-leg defeat, Rennes went to Real Betis in the last round and won 3-1 in southern Spain. They have plenty of fire-power and while defensively they are far from watertight, one goal will mean Arsenal have to score at least three times to salvage extra time.
Rennes central midfielder Adrian Hanou, who scored against Caen, is a major influence on the team and is 15/4 to score at any time, but Benjamin Bourigeaud, who has scored in each of his last three games, is a man in form and at 14/5 to score at any time, may be of more interest to bettors.
The Gunners have faced French opposition on 25 previous occasions, 12 of those at home, where they have been victorious in only five of those games, which would seem to make the 10/11 odds for Arsenal to qualify for the next round rather slim. Rennes, already with that lead, are 4/5 to go through.
Of the 18 previous occasions the Gunners have lost the first leg of a European knockout tie they have progressed just three times, and it is 17/10 that Arsenal win and both teams score, while it is 17/20 that both teams score.
The Gunners know an early goal would settle the nerves and 10/11 for Arsenal to lead at half-time and full-time may interest some. They have shown that they can battle back from adversity several times this season, but there is no question they face an uphill battle.
For all the odds on this big game, click here.
Watch live Europa League action in your local Genting casino. Find your nearest casino here.
