12 Jun 2019
There is an early start to the Premier League weekend on the south coast, as Brighton take on resurgent West Ham at the Amex Stadium (Friday, 8pm). We look at some of the trends and odds available for the big clash…
BRIGHTON vs WEST HAM
It was their worst start in 96 years, but that opening four-game run of defeats for West Ham is becoming a distant memory. For Manuel Pellegrini’s side has stopped the rot and they have started to climb the table following a rare win at Everton, a home draw with Chelsea and victory over a sub-par Manchester United. Sandwiched in between was an 8-0 thumping of Macclesfield Town in the League Cup.
Brighton have lost four of their last six outings, but have faced the likes of Liverpool, Tottenham and Manchester City, and were odds on to lose all three. The fact that they were not beaten out of sight in any of them, losing by the odd goal to Liverpool and Spurs, and 2-0 at the champions belies their talent, work-rate and organization.
They also scored twice in draws with Fulham and Southampton, and lost no caste in defeat, going out of the League Cup by a single goal to the Saints.
Christ Hughton’s side occupy 15th position following their difficult opening, having faced four of last season’s top seven and their fixtures get a little easier over the coming weeks. They sit two points and one place behind the Hammers, their sole win coming over Manchester United at home.
Brighton are slight favourites at 8/5 on the Genting Casino online football odds as they seek to move away from the relegation zone before they face struggling Newcastle on October 20, following the second international break.
West Ham, who lost both games against the Seagulls last season, are 15/8 on the Genting Casino Premier League odds to record a third success of the campaign.
This has never been a fixture that the Hammers relish. They have lost seven of the last 15 clashes, including a poor 3-0 home defeat last year. That was followed by a 3-1 reverse at the Amex in February, when Jose Izqueirdo produced a stunning 25-yead curling effort which was voted one of the goals of the season.
West Ham will be without a handful of players, including Winston Reid, Andy Carroll, Manuel Lanzini and Jack Wilshere, who are all sidelined.
Hughton confirmed that Pascal Gross will rema sidelined, but Dale Stephens is close to returning from injury and the midfielder could be available on Friday night.
Brighton have lost just once at home in the Premier League this season, with Anthony Knockaet’s stoppage-time consolation reducing the deficit against Tottenham in a 2-1 loss.
What has been apparent is the Seagulls’ character. They came from 2-0 down on consecutive occasions against Fulham and Southampton. The Hammers have looked vulnerable at the back at times this season, but Pellegrini has them playing a more compact and rigid structure, although they still look vulnerable when opponents utilize space down the flanks.
West Ham have conceded at least once in their four away games this season (Liverpool 4-0, Arsenal 3-1, Wimbledon 1-3, Everton 1-3) and have managed just one clean sheet in the league (against Chelsea). It is no surprise to see the Hammers as big as 21/10 to keep a clean sheet on the Genting Casino Premier League odds.
Brighton have netted in each of their three home games in the league, scoring twice against Fulham and Southampton, and three times against Manchester United. It is 6/4 that Brighton score two goals or more on the online Genting Casino soccer odds.
MEN TO WATCH
Glenn Murray has a decent record against West Ham. The Brighton striker netted a brace at the London Stadium to get off the mark for Albion last season and then scored in the 3-1 win at the Amex in the reverse fixture. He has also scored a brace against the Hammers in a 3-1 Crystal Palace win a few seasons ago.
The 35-year-old is a crafty player and is always a threat in the air, so while Diop and Balbuena are becoming one of the most underrated central defensive partnerships in the Premier League, they will have to be on their mettle. Murray has five goals already this season and he is fair value to score anytime at 6/4, especially considering he is the Seagulls’ penalty taker.
If Gross is unfit to start, the supply line will come from the pacey Knockaert. While he may well occupy a deeper role, he is going to be a threat each time he gets the ball down the right channel, and already this season he has chipped in with three assists and scored once. Knockaert is 16/5 to score at any time.
West Ham rely heavily on the pace of Marco Arnautovic, who is among the best strikers in the Premier League. He has occupied a more forward role in the last 18 months and scored 11 goals for the Hammers last season, goals which kept them up.
He has borne the brunt of opponents’ attention in recent weeks and the Hammers can ill afford to lose him for an extended period of time, but they now also have creative players in Andriy Yarmolenko and the hugely impressive Felipe Anderson, who appear to have settled in well.
Yarmolenko appears to have had his confidence restored with goals at Everton and against Manchester United, and he is perhaps better value at 10/3 to score at any time than Arnautovic, who sits at 13/8 in the same market.
A CLOSE GAME?
While 23 of their 48 meetings have produced three goals or more, both sides will be keen to get something before the international break. While there has been just one draw in the last 16 meetings, this could be a cagey affair, especially early on and Genting Casino football odds of Evens for a draw at half-time might offer reasonable value.
Given the record of one of other side failing to score in recent games, it seems prudent to consider the 10/11 for one or other to end the game scoreless.
TOP TRENDS
Five of the last six meetings produced three goals or more – it is 21/10 for over 2.5 goals to be scored
One or other team failed to net in seven of the last 10 meetings – it is 4/5 for both teams to score
Brighton have won five of the last seven home meetings with the Hammers (D1 L1) – it is 9/4 for Brighton to win and over 1.5 goals in the game
Brighton have lost just one of their last 16 October matches – Brighton to win or draw on the Double Chance market is 2/5
West Ham seek back-to-back Premier League away wins for the first time since February 2017 – West Ham to win or draw is available at 4/9
West Ham’s last seven Premier League wins have come with a two-goal victory margin – West Ham to win and over 2.5 goals to be scored is 7/2
