26 Sept 2022
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It’s been a torrid run for England in recent months with their last goal from open play coming all the way back in March via a Raheem Sterling strike against Ivory Coast. They’re one of only two sides to have failed to net away from a set piece so far in the Nations League, with the other being San Marino, and Gareth Southgate has a job on his hands to get his side ready for the World Cup.
With that said, there seems to be a running trend of Europe’s elite performing poorly in this Nations League, with England, Italy, Spain, France and Germany all winning less than half of their matches, so it’s not as though there’s a clear favourite here.
Germany have won just one of their five matches so far in this group, with that coming as a thumping 5-2 win over Italy back in June, while they come into this clash off the back of a 1-0 defeat to leaders Hungary.
The Draw
Having drawn the reverse fixture back in Munich, as Jonas Hofmann’s goal was cancelled out by a late Harry Kane penalty, England will feel confident back in their home ground where they’ll have fond memories of ousting their German counterparts in the last-16 of the Euros just last year.
Aside from this being a great rivalry, there’s absolutely nothing concrete to play for here with England’s relegation already confirmed and Germany’s defeat to Hungary rendering them incapable of reaching the group summit.
That could partly explain why the likes of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Fikayo Tomori have been left out of the squad for the game, though the depth in defensive talent that the hosts have should ensure that they’re not too much of a loss, and while the Three Lions have struggled up top, Germany haven’t exactly been resolute.
Die Mannschaft are yet to keep a clean sheet in the Nations League, while away from home they’ve only managed to pick up one victory in seven since the tournament’s inception. Hansi Flick may be worried about their form, though like Southgate the Germany manager will be judged on how his side fares in the imminent World Cup.
Under 2.5 Goals
Ultimately, in a match between two very out of form nations, the home advantage may be the deciding factor. While Germany have only just suffered their first defeat since the Euros, their away record in this competition has us unsure of their chances of picking up three points here.
England are now unbeaten in 15 outings at Wembley, winning 13 of them, though many of those outings were against weaker opposition, and all angles lead to a game of fine margins, and a low scoring draw wouldn’t be a surprise.
THE DRAW
UNDER 2.5 GOALS
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