12 Nov 2019
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England only require a point to seal qualification, though don’t expect Gareth Southgate to tolerate any complacency or dropping of standards.
The Three Lions’ sole blemish in these qualifiers came on the road to the Czech Republic, ending an unbeaten run of 43 qualifiers, while on home turf alone, England have now won each of their past 17 such matches by an aggregate scoreline of 55-6.
The hosts have certainly been prolific on home soil during the current campaign, beating the Czechs (5-0) and Bulgaria (4-0) at Wembley, as well as Kosovo (5-3) at St. Mary’s, with the latter side the only ones to cause any discomfort.
However, Kosovo have scored four times as many goals as Montenegro, despite having played a game less, so we’re unconvinced that the visitors here have what it takes to breach England’s backline on their travels. Indeed, Montenegro have failed to score on a single occasion across their past four qualifiers now.
England should be able to boast the requisite firepower to match their exploits at home so far, having put five past Montenegro in Podgorica. This game takes place at Wembley, where the big pitch should leave their opponents with tired legs the more the game wears on.
Moreover, only Bulgaria (who have already had to play England twice, conceding 10 times across those games) have shipped more goals in Group A at present.
England -2.75 Asian Handicap
Although England can be prone to an occasional wobble at the back, they’ve managed to not concede in seven of their last 10 qualifying wins.
However, with the price for the win to nil so skinny, coupled with the ability of Southgate’s side to rack up big numbers these days, the handicap appears a smarter way to eke out some value.
Montenegro are tied at the bottom of this group alongside Bulgaria, with an identical record of three points from seven games and a -12-goal difference.
Looking at England’s results in qualifiers against teams in the bottom two of their groups down the years, they’ve won by at least three clear goals in 21 of 27 since the campaign for Euro 2008, while emerging victorious by a minimum margin of four strikes in nine of the 13 at home over this period.
Marcus Rashford To Score Anytime
With a high output on the agenda, it’s impossible to ignore the claims of Marcus Rashford at the prices, especially with Raheem Sterling now out of the squad following his bust up with Joe Gomez.
The Man Utd striker has netted seven goals from as many starts since his last international appearance a month ago when he scored that blasted shot from just inside the area on the left wing.
Moreover, he’s been amongst the goals for his country in his last eight starts since September 2018, netting five times and providing two assists.
Given those efforts mostly came against top sides – Spain (twice), Switzerland and the Netherlands – he should have little problem in netting against relative minnows Montenegro now he has his chance.
England -2.75 Asian Handicap At 20/23
0.5 pts: Marcus Rashford To Score Anytime At 5/6
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