17 Oct 2019
ENGLAND, NEW ZEALAND, WALES AND SOUTH AFRICA ALL TO WIN AT 2/1 HERE!
Old Enemies Face-Off Again
Wales’ unconvincing victory over Uruguay saw them leapfrog the Wallabies and finish top of the group, setting themselves up for a showdown with Les Bleus in Oita.
But that means a mouth-watering clash between bitter rivals England and Australia precedes that fixture, and rest assured all eyes will be on this one to kick start the knockout rounds.
England have had a two-week break coming into this as their final pool match with France was abandoned due to Typhoon Hagibis ripping through mainland Japan in what has been described as the worst storm in decades.
It remains to be seen if they will be energised after the break, or whether they’ll come into this one slightly rustier than their opponents who played their last game just eight days before this quarter final.
An undoubted positive from the break, however, is it will give more time for Billy Vunipola to recover from a twisted ankle in time, though it’s a bit touch and go for Billy. Whatever his condition, this one is going to be close.
England 1-12 Point Margin
Excluding All Black fixtures, seven of the eight World Cup quarter finals played between tier one nations since 2007 have been decided by 12 points or fewer, with Argentina’s rout of Ireland in 2015 the only exception.
England go into this one favourites, and for good reason too. The Red Roses have won their last six meetings with the Wallabies, three at home, and three down under, so Jones seems to have Cheika’s number.
Although four of those six victories came by greater than a 12-point margin, Australia have been going through something of a Changing of the Guard since the last World Cup as they have looked to get some youngsters some minutes, so we expect this one to be a tighter affair.
Indeed, the World Cup head-to-head between these two is evenly balanced at three wins apiece, though with England winning three of the last four, including both quarter-final meetings by three and two point margins in 1995 and 2007 respectively, we’re happy to go with them winning by fewer than 13 points.
What To Expect
Despite Australia’s transitional period, Cheika has retained a lot of the experience in the squad, with the likes of Will Genia, James O’Connor, Kurtley Beale and Adam Ashley-Cooper all making an impact in the back line this tournament, so there is not a lot of youthful surprises that the Wallabies can shock England with.
Set Pieces have been an area that the green and gold have been particularly focussed on in recent times, and with the level of physicality they’ve imposed on their opposition so far, the Red Roses will have a lot on their plate.
With this in mind, the Southern Hemisphere side will undoubtedly kick for touch instead of taking the points more often than not, which could play into their oppositions’ hands should they be profligate with these chances, so we expect Jones’ experience to shine through this well rested side and see them to a narrow victory to make it seven from seven against their rivals.
England 1-12 Point Margin At 7/5
ENGLAND V AUSTRALIA TEAMS
England: 15 Elliot Daly, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Henry Slade, 12 Manu Tuilagi, 11 Jonny May, 10 Owen Farrell (c), 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 Sam Underhill, 6 Tom Curry, 5 Courtney Lawes, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Kyle Sinckler, 2 Jamie George, 1 Mako Vunipola
Replacements: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Joe Marler, 18 Dan Cole, 19 George Kruis, 20 Lewis Ludlam, 21 Willi Heinz, 22 George Ford, 23 Jonathan Joseph
Australia: 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Reece Hodge, 13 Jordan Petaia, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Will Genia, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 David Pocock, 5 Rory Arnold, 4 Izack Rodda, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Tolu Latu, 1 Scott Sio
Replacements: 16 Jordan Uelese, 17 James Slipper, 18 Taniela Tupou, 19 Adam Coleman, 20 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 21 Nic White, 22 Matt To’omua, 23 James O’Connor
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