5 Nov 2019
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Recent Form
Lucien Favre rotated his Dortmund side for their impressive weekend home clash with Wolfsburg, leaving the likes of Jadon Sancho, Axel Witsel and Thomas Delaney on the bench in preparation for this huge Champions League tie having lost the reverse fixture at San Siro.
Inter left it late to come from behind at Bologna, as Romelu Lukaku’s 75th and 91st minute brace enough to seal the three points and keep in touching distance with leaders Juventus.
Both outfits have been in impressive form this season, making the outright very difficult to predict. Indeed, they both sit second in their respective leagues with just the solitary defeat and while Dortmund remain unbeaten at Westfalenstadion this season, they have only managed to win two of their last nine Champions League games here, so it’s hard to make a compelling case to back them as favourites.
Antonio Conte’s charges have a 100% record on the road this season in Serie A, while their solitary defeat across all competitions came thanks to a second half Luis Suarez double at Camp Nou.
It should be noted though, that four of their six such league victories have come against bottom-half sides, and three were in the bottom-six and don’t hold a candle to the Bundesliga outfit they’ll face here, so the outright market should be avoided.
Over 2.5 Goals
Despite this being just the fourth round of fixtures, the significance this game bears on the outcome of the group and so both sides are likely to treat it more as a knockout match.
Dortmund will be the side to push more for the win here to level the head-to-heads, as a draw will likely not be enough having lost 2-0 at San Siro last month, while Conte will be wary that a loss will massively damage their hopes of progression so an early home goal could really open this game up.
What’s more, both sides are no strangers to finding the back of the net in their respective home and away games. The hosts are averaging over two goals per game in front of the Yellow Wall this term, while the Nerazzurri have found the net at least twice in six of their seven trips this season, with as many seeing a total of three or more goals.
With this in mind, the ‘Overs’ market seems better value than backing both teams to score. Indeed, BVB have seen this outcome in a whopping 24 of 31 home matches under Favre, while under Conte the Italians have seen more than two goals in seven of their last eight at all venues since late September.
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