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Recent Form
Croatia ran out 4-0 winners in the reverse fixture back in September, but 1-1 draws with both Azerbaijan and Wales and a 2-1 defeat away in Hungary mean they haven’t quite qualified yet, though a draw here in Rijeka will be enough to seal their spot in next summer’s Euros.
Slovakia’s chances rest entirely in their own hands as they know wins in their final two group games will see them qualify too, though they’ll be hard pushed seeing as Croatia have picked up maximum points at home in this group so far.
Crucially, 106 capped midfielder Ivan Rakitic will miss this final group game for his country having withdrawn from the squad through injury.
The World Cup runners up are just W4-D2-L5 without their midfield maestro since late March 2017, which has included defeats to Estonia, Iceland, Turkey and Tunisia, though it did also include that 4-0 hammering in the reverse fixture.
They’ll also likely be without forward Andrej Kramaric who has three goals in his last six games for his country, so this may not be as straightforward as initially thought, especially when you throw both centre backs Dejan Lovren and Domagoj Vida into the list of absentees.
They will still retain firepower through Bruno Petkovic, who has four goals in his last five games for Croatia and so we expect them to at least get on the board, but they may well leak a few goals too.
Slovakia are the group’s second top scorers behind their next opponents with 10 goals from their six games coming through eight different goalscorers, so they possess a large goal threat from multiple areas on the park.
With potential goals here, and with a weakened Croatia team coming up against their Eastern European counterparts needing a result, we’re happy to avoid the outright at the prices.
Both Teams To Score
Both teams have registered on the scoresheet in seven of the last nine Croatia games on home soil, whilst they’ve won by just the solitary goal in five of their last seven, including against weaker sides in Wales, Azerbaijan, Jordan and Senegal.
The visitors have scored seven goals in their last two away games against Azerbaijan and Hungary, both of whom have taken points of the group leaders, while they’ve also conceded in each of their last 12 trips, so the both teams to score market looks banker material.
The winning margin does appeal seeing as 10 of the last 11 defeats Slovakia have suffered on the road have been by exactly one goal, but with the hosts missing both suspended centre backs we’d rather just stick to the goals market at a tasty price.
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