8 Oct 2019
Recent Form
Despite a run to the World Cup final last summer, Croatia have been in mixed form under Zlatko Dalic since his appointment back in October 2017. His side are W12-D7-L7 over 90 minutes over this spell and have only won five of 16 matches since the end of the Wold Cup group stage.
Having lost three of their last seven all by a 2-1 scoreline at the hands of England, Tunisia and their next opponents Hungary, it’s remarkable they’re such heavy favourites, even if they ought to take maximum points on home turf.
Hungary currently sit only one point behind group leaders Croatia, having defeated Wales, Azerbaijan and the table toppers thus far in the qualifiers.
However, despite recent results, it should be noted that there is a vast difference in their home and away form. Indeed, the Magyars are currently a very poor W1-D2-L8 on the road since the start of 2017, with their only victory coming versus lowly Azerbaijan.
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Croatia To Win 2-1
However, five of those eight defeats came by a narrow one-goal margin, while two of those three other losses came to Switzerland and Portugal, who were ranked 7th and 8th in the world respectively at the time of the match, so we’ll forgive the Hungarians for those defeats.
What’s more, if including their extra-time World Cup semi-final victory over England, six of Croatia’s last seven wins have come by a single strike. Five of those finished with two goals to one, including three of their last four home fixtures, so we’re inclined to back them at the same scoreline.
Croatia aren’t as far clear in this group as they probably would have hoped at this stage, leading both Slovakia and Hungary by just the single point, so there’s no doubt Dalic will opt to field his strongest possible team as he looks to take revenge for that defeat in the reverse fixture.
Bruno Petkovic To Score Anytime
Striker Bruno Petkovic is fast becoming a regular in the Croatian side since the retirement of veteran Mario Mandzukic and has started the last three games for his country, scoring two goals in the process.
His output for his club side Dinamo Zagreb is promising too, with two in his last three domestic games, while he bagged four goals in six Champions League qualifiers this campaign, so we’re happy to get behind him to find the net again.
Draw (Croatia -1 Handicap) At 12/5
0.5 pts: Correct Score – Croatia 2-1 At 8/1
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