12 Jun 2019
Wednesday, July 11 (7pm BST) - Luzhniki Stadium, Moscow
From a half of the draw that included Spain and Argentina, only the brave would have predicted a Croatia v England semi-final in what has been a remarkable World Cup tournament.
Yet the path to Sunday’s final – at the same Luzhniki Stadium venue – has miraculously opened up for teams that were considered dark horses at best.
Croatia have reached their first World Cup semi-final since 1998 and, like Belgium, are attempting to become only the ninth nation to lift the trophy.
They cruised through their group with maximum points and conceded just one goal – against Iceland. Their three wins included a crushing 3-0 defeat of Argentina. Yet they have failed to find their true form in the knockout stages, having to survive the mentally and physically draining extra-time and penalty kicks lottery against both Denmark and Russia to reach this point.
Let’s not get carried away. England have had an easy route to the semi-final. Neither Colombia nor Sweden offered much in the way of an attacking threat, but you can only beat what is in front of you.
England come into this with just one defeat in their last 16 games – and that was to Belgium’s reserve side, which was something of a tactical master-stroke by Gareth Southgate, who engineered a softer route to the semi-finals. Belgium’s 1-0 success meant they had to overcome Brazil in the quarter-finals and on Tuesday face an even tougher test against France.
It’s coming home?
The World Cup outright odds available have Croatia at 4/1 outsiders to win the tournament, with England at 5/2.
Croatia are undefeated in their last nine matches and are 23/10 to win in 90 minutes. Their record against England is not brilliant, having lost four of their last six meetings and they have conceded nine goals in their last two against the Three Lions.
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in five of the last six meetings and it is 7/5 for that to happen again on Wednesday.
Kane key again?
England have a couple of major injury concerns, including one that may have been kept under wraps.
Striker Harry Kane, who has scored six goals and tops the Golden Boot betting, was clattered in the ribs midway through the second half and a few minutes later went down in agony when hit in the chest by the ball in the Sweden area. Could it be he has broken/cracked ribs? It is worth keeping an ear to the ground on this one.
It may be just bruising, since he was kept on the pitch, with Eric Dyer replacing Jordan Henderson, Fabian Delph coming on for Dele Alli and Raheem Sterling replaced by Marcus Rashford. Perhaps there was nothing in it and Kane recovered sufficiently – yet he was largely ineffective thereafter.
Croatia will be like Colombia and Sweden, and try to knock England off of their stride with their physical style. Yet they have enough guile in the midfield to cause problems and Luca Modric’s performances mean the playmaker is a contender for the Golden Ball.
While Domagoj Vida is available for Croatia after FIFA opted to only give the defender a warning, following his pro-Ukraine comments in a social media video following his team’s quarter-final win gainst hosts Russia, they are still suspect at the back. A fit Kane against Liverpool’s Dejan Lovran is one of the battles England know they can win.
Lovran has enjoyed a decent tournament, but the Tottenham striker can be backed at 11/10 to score at any time and 11/2 to score two or more.
Croatia manager Zlatio Dalic is on record as saying he does not fear Kane, which will only add fuel to the fire – as if any were needed.
Fatigue and injures make an impact?
Dalic has a decision to make up front. Andrej Kramarić was surprisingly picked to start ahead of Marcelo Brozović against Russia on Saturday but the latter could return to the starting XI here. This would enable Modric to play further forward.
Their main concern is Sime Vrsaljko, who limped off against Russia but Croatia are banking on the Atletico Madrid defender to recover by Wednesday. Goalkeeper Danijel Subasic also required treatment towards the end of 90 minutes with Russia for a suspected hamstring problem, but he should be fit enough to face England.
Southgate might be wise to play Delph in favour of Henderson, while Alli, his goal aside, may also be under pressure to keep his place. He has had a quiet World Cup, but the goal may be just what he needs.
England need to puff out their chests. They are the better side. They need to play with freedom and put the ball into the Croatia box quickly and often. A patient approach will play into Croatia’s hands. They must play on the front foot but it must be remembered that they have only managed to keep one clean sheet at this World Cup, with even Panama and Tunisia breaching their reargued in the group stage.
So those thinking this will be a repeat of the comfortable success over Sweden might be in for a surprise. An England win with both teams scoring is available at 9/2 – and it is without question that the Three Lions will never have a better opportunity to bring the World Cup home for the first time since 1966.
Key Stats:
There have been under 2.5 goals scored in England’s last three games – Under 2.5 goals is priced at 1/2.
England have scored at least two goals in five of their last six matches against Croatia – it is 8/5 that England score over 1.5 goals in 90 minutes on Wedesday.
Croatia have gone through on penalties in both knockout games – it is 9/1 Croatia reach the final via a penalty shootout.
Croatia have taken 77 shots at goal so far this World Cup and 18 of them have been on target. England have had 68 shots at goal but 21 of them have been on target – it is 13/10 that Croatia score the first goal.
England have scored a total of 11 goals - one more than Croatia - and have a better passing accuracy at 85.3% to Croatia’s 81% - it is Evens that there will be 2-3 total goals scored in 90 minutes.
England have only conceded 52 fouls at the World Cup so far, at least 20 fewer than any of the other three remaining semi-finalists – England are 4/6 to reach the final.
