12 Jun 2019
At the start of the tournament, we offered five reasons why England could win the World Cup and now that their side of the draw has opened up, there is no reason why we can’t dare to dream
Spain paid the penalty for their windscreen-wiper, Tiki-Taka system, which is all very well if you pass and move, but against Russia they passed and passed, usually sideways or backwards. It was like watching an eight-year-old trying to answer metaphysics questions on Mastermind. They created little, despite completing a record 779 passes, but all they had to show for their efforts was one goal – and that was scored by a Russian.
Croatia were also somewhat fortunate to survive a penalty shoot-out with Denmark. They looked jaded and lacked any invention. There is huge pressure on the Croatian golden generation to deliver, but they were a shadow of the side that ripped Argentina apart in the group stages.
England now have a fantastic chance of making the semi-finals at the very least. They are the only former winners of the trophy in their half of the draw, and should they beat Colombia on Tuesday, they will face either Sweden or Switzerland in the quarter-finals, with the possibility of meeting Croatia or Russia in the semis.
Switzerland have managed one win over England in 14 previous meetings since 1954, while Sweden have won one of the last six meetings against England. In short, there isn’t too much to fear.
It is no wonder that England’s pre-tournament odds of 22/1 have come crashing down. Their World Cup outright odds show they are now 11/2 joint-third favourites behind Brazil and France.
Yet Gareth Southgate will be well aware that Spain’s lack of adventure and invention cost them dearly and he will no doubt implore his side to do what they do best – take the game to their opponents.
Harry Kane returns to the England side having been rested for the 1-0 defeat to Belgium, following his hat-trick against Panama. If he scores again, not only will he be a firm favourite in the betting for the Golden Boot, he will become the first player to score in six consecutive games for the Three Lions since Tommy Lawton in 1939. Kane is 14/5 to score the first goal against Colombia and 21/10 to score at any time.
England’s threat at dead-ball situations is well known, but stopping Harry Maguire, Jordan Henderson and company in the air is another thing. England scored six goals from set pieces in the group stage. Yet Colombia scored three of their five goals from dead-ball situations as well and that should worry an England defence that has looked shaky at times.
England have conceded in every one of their three group games and it is odds-against that they will keep a clean sheet against Colombia.
It is also a concerning trend that England have won just two of their last eight knockout games at the World Cup, having previously progressed in six of their previous eight games in the knockout phase.
The first round of the knockout stage invariably has more than its fair share of drawn games and it is 21/10 that the game is drawn after 90 minutes. The first two knockout games went to extra-time and penalties and it is 4/1 that the clash will be settled by spot kicks.
Seven of England’s previous 14 knockout games at the World Cup went to the extra half-hour, and they are a generous 9/1 to win in extra-time.
While England’s defensive limitations are obvious, so is their ability to create and Southgate will hope that the trend of scoring at the knockout stages at World Cups continues. The Three Lions have failed to register just once in 18 knockout stage games.
England are unbeaten against Colombia in five games (W3 D2), so those thinking of backing Colombia may look at the odds of 6/4 to qualify. They are 14/1 to win in extra-time.
The fast starts made by England against Tunisia and Panama means their odds to score first are a little restrictive at 4/5, but Colombia are defensive in nature and there is every reason to think England will take the game to the South Americans.
None of Colombia’s 21 games at the World Cup has ended goalless and the odds favour over 2.5 goals in the game at 8/5.
For the more adventurous, backing England to win with over 2.5 goals in the game is available at 3/1.
Watch live World Cup action in your local Genting casino. Find your nearest casino here
