12 Jun 2019
We offer analysis and odds on some of this week’s NCAA Division 1 games, including a huge SEC clash as LSU host Georgia in Death Valley.
TEXAS TECH @ TCU
There is a major Big 12 showdown on Thursday night as the Red Raiders travel to the Horned Frogs, with both teams sitting at 3-2 overall and 1-1 in conference play. This essentially is an elimination game to remain in contention for the Big 12 title.
Texas Tech suffered a loss at home to West Virginia before a bye week, while TCU chiselled out a narrow win over Iowa State and are 7.5-point handicap favourites on the Genting Casino College Football odds at 4/5.
TCU held Iowa State to 198 yards of total offense, although they allowed David Montgomery to rush for 101 on the ground. Their bend-don’t-break defense stopped the Cyclones on two crucial fourth down attempts to come out on top 17-14, and Horned Frogs fans could be in for another nail-biter if history is the guide, as two of the last three meetings with the Red Raiders were decided by three points.
Texas Tech has the nation’s top-ranked offense, racking up 589.4 yards per game and their 48.4 points per game puts them eighth in the nation. TCU will have to get pressure on freshman QB Alan Bowman, who has completed 69 percent of his passes and has thrown for 1,680 yards for 11 touchdowns.
However, Bowman is not a certain starter, as he suffered a partially collapsed lung against the Mountaineers. If he does not start, Jett Duffey or McLane Carter will replace him.
TCU hope QB Shawn Robinson will play, even if he does not start, as he as been nursing a left shoulder injury.
Texas Tech upset Oklahoma State two weeks ago but TCU has won eight straight home games and consistently boasts the top defense in the Big 12.
Given the injury situation with both QBs, Texas Tech may not reach their average score, and the hosts may do just enough to win. The points total is set at 57.5 points and there will be a few punters taking the under at odds of 7/10.
ARIZONA @ UTAH
Utah pulled off an impressive win against a suddenly reeling Stanford and now look to be among the front-runners, along with Colorado and USC, for the wide-open South Division.
Running back Zack Moss had a big day against the Cardinal, rushing for 160 yards on 20 carries, and will be a major threat to the Wildcats under Friday night lights.
The Utes have clicked offensively, with QB Tyler Huntley taking a leap forward in his junior year, although not as big a leap as anticipated. The dual-threat triggerman is completing 64.4 percent of his passes and has 994 yards, with five TDs, while on the ground he has 143 yards on 64 carries.
Arizona gained a much-needed win over Southern California and travel to Salt Lake City off a short week, which is never easy, and they face a strong defensive unit, which is giving up just 17.2 points per game and 296.4 yards per game. That’s good enough to put them among the top 10 in the nation.
It seems that the Wildcats will have to find a way to beat the Utes in the air, because running on their defense has proven to be difficult this season. The Utes are considered 14.5-point favourites on the Genting Casino College Football Handicap at odds of 10/11and some will think that line is steep. If so, the Wildcats can be considered at 3/4 in receipt of that number of points.
Arizona are 7/2 to pull off a shock road on the Genting Casino Moneyline.
GEORGIA @ LSU
There is nothing quite like a big SEC battle and Georgia at LSU is a huge game.
The No.2-ranked Georgia Bulldogs face the No.13-ranked LSU Tigers in Death Valley, where it can get really loud. The Bulldogs are 6-0 (3-0 in SEC) but make their first trip to the venue since 2008.
LSU (5-1, 2-1) is coming off a loss at Florida and this is the first of three home games that will define their season.
Georgia opened as a 7.5-point favourite and the line has moved to 9.5-points over the past few days, even though they are only 3-3 against the spread (ATS) this season, including 1-1 in SEC play on the road.
LSU, led by QB transfer Joe Burrow, are 2-0 as an underdog this season, beating both Auburn and Miami – and they have only been an underdog at home six times since 2010 and are 3-3 in those games.
The key could be two-fold: the Bulldogs are more efficient in the red-zone, scoring 18 TDs and five field goals, while LSU has scored 14 TDs and nine field goals.
Secondly, Georgia QB Jake Fromm is completing 72.8 percent of his passes to Burrow’s 53.9 percent and if LSU is to take advantage, they will probably need their ground game to spark to life.
The Bulldogs are 19/20 to cover what looks a lofty handicap, but oftentimes the money talks where line moves are concerned. LSU are available at 3/4 in receipt of 9.5 points and can also be supported on the Moneyline at 9/4.
WISCONSIN @ MICHIGAN
No.12-ranked Michigan hosts No.15-ranked Wisconsin in what is shaping up to be a cracker in the Big Ten conference. The Badgers are 15-1 in true road games under head coach Paul Chryst and have won their last 10 away from home.
They are 13/5 on the Moneyline, despite the fact they have won 17 straight Big Ten games, which is the nation’s longest active conference winning streak. QB Alex Hornibrook has completed 68 percent of his passes on the road and has tossed 18 TDs to three interceptions, for a pass efficiency rating of 165.7, but it is the ground game that has been most impressive, with RB Jonathan Taylor leading the nation, averaging 169.8 yards per game. He has 849 yards already this season.
The Badgers are 4-1 this season but were stunned by BYU, who upset them 24-21 when a 23.5-point favourite, and they have covered the handicap just once in five tries this season.
Despite their decent attack, the defense is letting them down and they conceded 518 yards to a poor Nebraska team last week, despite winning 41-24 on the road.
Indeed, they are allowing 6.01 yards per play and that poor number has come against some weak attacks, the best of which has been New Mexico’s!
They returned just four starters on defense and injuries have also hurt Chryst’s team, so Michigan’s transfer QB Shea Patterson, who ranks second in the Big Ten in completion percentage and third in yards per attempt, should build on is 10 TD haul with ease. Wisconsin does not have the horses to rush the passer, so many will feel backing the Michigan Wolverines an conceding 10.5-points on the handicap at odds of 19/20 might be viable.
HAWAII @ BYU
Zach Wilson could become only the seventh true freshman QB to start for BYU after he entered the Cougars’ 45-20 loss to Utah State and engineered a six-play 77-yard touchdown drive. Wilson’s only other collegiate experience came late in the Cougars’ win over McNeese State on September 22. With Tanner Mangum seemingly struggling and BYU on a two-game losing streak, perhaps now is the time to change, especially since they face the Hawaii Warriors.
The Cougars are 3-3 for the year after those back-to-back losses to Washington and Utah State, but they were ranked in the top 25 after upsetting No.6 Wisconsin prior to that.
BYU fields a formidable defense but ranks near the bottom in the nation in both scoring and yards gained.
The Warriors survived another thriller last weekend, beating Wyoming 17-13 without starting QB Cole McDonald. He returns to face a similar style defense.
The Warriors fell to BYU in last season’s finale at home by a score of 30-20 and BYU is considered a 2/11 Moneyline favourite. They are asked to concede 12.5 points on the Genting Casino American Football Handicap at odds of 19/20. That will surprise some, because the Warriors have a 6-1 record and are far better than many experts predicted at the start of the season.
Whether the Cougars can match Hawaii blow for blow is open to question, so some will look to the points total at 57.7 and take the unders at 4/5.
Those seeking College Football picks against the handicap spread may wish to take a look at Lindyssports.com, America’s leading football authority.
