12 Jun 2019
We offer analysis and odds on some of this week’s NCAA Division 1 games, and ponder whether West Virginia will maintain their unbeaten record against Oklahoma, and whether Gardner Minshew can lead the Washington State Cougars to the Apple Cup and a place in the Pac-12 championship game.
MISSISSIPPI STATE @ MISSISSIPPI
For Ole Miss, this is essentially its bowl game. The 115th meeting between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Ole Miss Rebels could be another cracking renewal of the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving night.
The environment of senior night means Oxford will be rocking for the arrival of Mississippi State, who thrashed Arkansas 52-6 last week to take their record to 7-4 (3-4 SEC).
After last year’s 31-28 Ole Miss Egg Bowl victory, Mississippi State’s seniors would enjoy nothing more than to repay the favour at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
And the Genting Casino odds suggest they will come out on top, as they are 1/6 favourites on the Moneyline and 5/6 to successfully concede 12.5 points on the handicap.
The Rebels are mired in a four-game losing streak and it won’t be easy to snap it against the No.21-ranked Bulldogs, who have won 44 of the 115 previous meetings (L64 T6).
Ole Miss will have a problem gaining ground on the Bulldogs’ defense, which has giving up just seven rushing touchdowns all season and ranks 13th nationally against the run. The defense as a whole has yielded three only passing scores, five rushing scores and 14 field goals to opponents in the red zone, whilst holding opponents to under 14 points on eight occasions.
This will be a great test for Ole Miss QB Jordan Ta’amu and receiver AJ Brown, who have been dynamic this year. Ta’amu has passed for 3,831 yards and 19 touchdowns against seven interceptions, and averages 348.2 passing yards per game. Brown ranks fifth in the nation with 1,259 receiving yards.
Yet it is the Ole Miss defense that is going to face the biggest test, coming up against QB Nick Fitzgerald, who broke his ankle in this game last year. He has been outstanding following his recovery and boasts a team-leading 1,088 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, with another 1,504 yards passing and 14 touchdowns. He would like nothing better than to close out the season with another decisive win.
NEBRASKA @ IOWA
This is essentially Nebraska’s bowl game and what a win it would be, having not beaten the Iowa Hawkeyes for three years.
The Cornhuskers (4-7, 3-5 Big Ten), who have won four of their last five games, giving Scott Frost a welcome boost after a modest start to his coaching reign at Nebraska, are 5/2 underdogs with Genting Casino to land the Heroes’ Trophy.
Iowa (7-4, 4-4) are already bowl eligible (six wins) and have won the last three meetings by a combined 80 points. They are 1/4 to win a fourth successive meeting and are 3/4 to successfully concede 7.5 points on the handicap.
Slowing down the Cornhuskers’ ground game will be key, yet while Iowa snapped a three-game losing streak with a 63-0 blowout of Illinois last week, Nebraska’s offense has found its rhythm and possesses big-play ability from multiple positions.
The Huskers also come into this one with more momentum, so some will feel that this not only could this be close, it is a game with upset potential.
HOUSTON @ MEMPHIS
The American Athletic Conference West division will be settled on Friday night and the winner of this clash will face UCF in the AAC Championship game on Dec.1. So there is plenty on the line.
The Houston Cougars (8-3, 5-2 AAC) top the six-team West division after their 48-17 win over Tulane, but they lost QB D’Eriq King for the season with a knee injury, and therefore are 21/10 underdogs to beat a Memphis Tigers team (7-4, 4-3) that has won five of its six home games this year.
Houston will start Clayton Tune at QB. He has thrown for 309 yards, four touchdowns and an interception in three games this season. This will easily be the biggest game of the freshman’s career.
Games between these two have been close in recent seasons, with Memphis winning 42-38 last year. The Tigers took the 2016 meeting 48-44, while Houston won by a point in 2015. That may be worth thinking about then playing the handicap, where Houston is in receipt of 8.5 points at odds of 8/11.
Memphis’ ground game is key to the outcome. They average 264.5 rushing yards per game and have 36 rushing touchdowns, with Darrell Henderson leading the way with 1,521 yards and 17 TDs.
VIRGINIA @ VIRGINIA TECH
Virginia Tech has the historic upper-hand, winning the last 14 meetings and only on one occasion has it not been by a double-digit margin.
It may be a little different this year, with the Cavaliers bowl eligible at 7-4, while the Hokies have slipped to 4-6 following their 38-14 loss to Miami.
As with last week when facing dual-threat QB N’Kosi Perry, the Hokies face a similar problem in Bryce Perkins, who has thrown for 2,213 yards with 19 touchdowns and has another 730 yards on the ground.
Virginia Tech’s offensive line has not been particularly stout in recent weeks, with both Miami and Pittsburgh making play after play in their backfield.
Virginia Tech, who are considered 4/9 favourites, are fundamentally well coached, have taken care of the ball and have the third fewest penalties in the ACC. The Hokies have averaged over 50 yards of penalties per game.
Virginia Tech is two wins away from bowl eligibility but if they win this game, Marshall will travel to Blacksburg on Dec. 1, as both teams lost a game due to hurricane Florence. So a win would keep bow eligibility alive.
The odds are against them, though, with the Cavaliers on offer at 3/4 to successfully concede 3.5 points on the handicap.
UCF @ SOUTH FLORIDA
University of Central Florida own the longest active winning streak in the country. They take their 23-game unbeaten record to the South Florida Bulls in Tampa on Friday, with the hosts attempting to play spoiler.
UCF has its eyes on the College Football Playoff and will be keen to impress the selection committee, who decide which of the four teams will be in the National Championship playoffs.
Yet UCF, having already locked up the division title, know they have won just one of four road trips to South Florida. The Bulls, though, have lost their last four games after opening with a 7-0 record and let slip a 17-0 half-time lead to Temple last week, giving up 27 unanswered points.
UCF are 2/15 to win and 8/11 to successfully concede 12.5 points on the handicap. Layers are expecting a points-fest, with the under/overs line set at 69.5 points.
While we should take nothing for granted in rivalry games, the visitors need an impressive show to maintain their National Title charge and some think they will cover this spread easily enough.
OKLAHOMA @ WEST VIRGINIA
Regular readers will know that we feared the West Virginia defense would, at some point, not be able to keep up with its offense, and that proved the case last week, when the Mountaineers (8-2, 6-1) fell out of the top 10, slipping to a 45-41 upset loss at Oklahoma State.
With Texas likely to lock up one of the two Big 12 Championship game spots this weekend (if they don’t stumble against Kansas), for West Virginia this is a de facto semi-final against the No.6 Oklahoma Sooners (10-1, 7-1) in Morgantown.
The winner will lock in a title game slot and earn a chance to clinch a New Year’s Six Bowl berth or perhaps even a College Football Playoff spot.
Oklahoma has won the last six meetings and the Mountaineers have not beaten them since joining the Big 12. Their last win over Oklahoma was a 48-28 triumph in the 2008 Fiesta Bowl.
This is a battle between two of the nation’s top college QBs, with Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray facing Will Grier, who led an offense that was shot out in the third quarter last week and mustered a single fourth-quarter TD. He is more likely to play angry than lack confidence.
Murray, who replaced Baker Mayfield (now with the Cleveland Browns), has been excellent in his first year at the helm, tossing 34 TDs and only six interceptions. The Sooners lead the nation in total offense with 576.1 yards per game and lead the FBS with 49.5 points per game.
Grier has been equally solid, with 33 TDs against eight INTs, and has a 67.2 per cent completion percentage. West Virginia has tallied an average of 40.9 points per contest.
Oklahoma is yielding 302 yards per game through the air against conference opponents and with West Virginia allowing 601 yards to the Cowboys, it seems that defense for both these teams is optional.
While West Virginia’s run defense looks solid – allowing just 135.5 yards on the ground per contest – opponents know they can pass on them, so those stats are slightly skewed.
They also face an Oklahoma team that has won 19 straight road games, so protecting their unbeaten home record will not be easy. The odds have the Sooners as 4/7 favourites, with the Mountaineers at 6/5. West Virginia can be backed at 3/4 in receipt of 3.5 points on the handicap.
While the 84.5 points total line looks huge, neither defense has been proven to be able to stop anyone consistently and, with Grier at the helm, the Sooners’ pass defense may be there for the taking.
WASHINGTON @ WASHINGTON STATE
The Washington State Cougars hope to win the Apple Cup and reach their first Pac-12 title game, but must buck a few trends to do so. Washington Huskies are also hoping to punch a ticket to the Pac-12 title game in Santa Clara on Nov. 30.
Mike Leach’s teams have not beaten any of Chris Petersen-coached Huskies squads, yet the Cougars are 8/13 favourites, with Washington at 21/10. The visitors come into this on the back of a strong offensive display in 69-28 win over Arizona.
The Huskies team that lost to Oregon and California last month was without Hunter Bryant, Trey Adams, Jordan Miller, D.J. Beavers and Shane Bowman. All are back for the Apple Cup – and it may be that their excellent secondary, which has allowed just 192.8 yards per game through the air at an impressive 5.9 yards per attempt – will have enough to stop Heisman Trophy candidate QB Gardner Minshew. He boasts a nation-leading 4,325 passing yards and a 70.4 per cent completion rate, with 36 TDs against seven INTs.
It could be a nail-biter.
Those seeking College Football picks against the handicap spread may wish to take a look at Lindyssports.com, America’s leading football authority.
