12 Jun 2019
We offer analysis and odds on some of this week’s NCAA Division 1 games, and ask whether Ohio State can beat the spread in Maryland, and ponder whether Tennessee can upset the odds at home to Missouri?
TULANE @ HOUSTON
A share of first place in the American Athletic Conference’s West Division is the goal for these two on Thursday night.
The Houston Cougars (7-3, 4-2 ACC) have lost their last two after a 7-1 start and while they remain in the hunt for the title, SMU, who host Memphis on Friday night, holds a tie-breaker after beating them two weeks ago.
The Tulane Green Wave (5-5, 4-2) won three on the spin and need one more win to become bowl eligible, but they also need SMU to falter if they are to have a shot at the West title and head to the AAC Championship.
Houston holds a 16-6 record against Tulane in the last 50 years, although Tulane won last year’s clash 20-17.
The Cougars boast the top-ranked attack in the AAC and average 47.8 points per game. A lot of those points have come in the final quarter.
Tulane’s defense is shipping 25.8 points per game and their red-zone defense has been outstanding this season, with opponents scoring on just 25 of 34 trips from inside their 20-yard line.
However, they come up against a QB in D’Eriq King whose pass efficiency stats put him sixth in the nation and he has tossed 35 TDs this year, so many bettors will feel that he can help Houston snap their losing streak and cover the 8.5 points on the Genting Casino American Football handicap at odds of 3/4. Tulane are available at 13/5 to win outright on the Moneyline.
MEMPHIS @ SMU
A Friday night showdown in Dallas with plenty on the line – that’s what’s in store when the Memphis Tigers face the Southern Methodist Union Mustangs.
The Tigers (6-4, 3-3) are defending AAC West champions but are chasing SMU (5-5, 4-2). They have won their last two, including s 47-21 beat-down of Tulsa last week.
The Mustangs top the AAC West, along with Houston and Tulane (who play on Thursday night), but hold the tie-breaker over both. They come into this on the back of a 62-50 road win over Connecticut last week.
There are plenty of NFL scouts keeping tabs on Memphis RB Darrell Henderson, who has averaged 9.15 yards per carry this season and ranks second in the nation with 1,446 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. He has scored a TD in nine of 10 games and is also useful as a pass-catcher out of the backfield.
Memphis ranks No6 in the nation in scoring, thanks in part to the talented trio of Henderson, QB Brady White (5 TDs in his last two games), and receiver Damonte Coxie. SMU has averaged 38.5 points per game since QB Ben Hicks regained his spot at the top of the depth chart from William Brown, and he has led them to three wins in four games.
Both teams have some excellent pass rushers, so this could come down to which defense performs best on the night. The Genting Casino odds have the Tigers as 1/4 favourites on the Moneyline, with SMU at 5/2.
There may be plenty of points on offer. The line is set at 72.5 points, and it is 17/20 that there will be less points than that bar. SMU might be considered by some to be value in receipt of 8.5 points at odds of 17/20.
OHIO STATE @ MARYLAND
Looking to stay in contention for the Big Ten East division title, the Ohio State Buckeyes can’t afford to look past Maryland Terrapins, who are one of the more talented teams in the conference.
Maryland (5-5) needs a win to become bowl eligible and enters this contest off a last-minute 34-32 loss to Indiana, but they will have to do without QB Kasim Hill, who tore an ACL last week. Redshirt sophomore Tyrrell Pigrome, who is equally effective with his legs as he is with his arm, gets the start instead.
Maryland will have to do a better job of stopping the run and will likely sell out against the Buckeyes’ ground game, one that racked up 229 yards against Nebraska but only 120 yards against Michigan State. The inconstancy in the running game is causing a few headaches for the Buckeyes’ coaches.
On the flip side, Ohio State held the Spartans to 54 yards on the ground, while Terrapins’ RB Anthony McFarland ran for 220 yards against the Hoosiers, so the Buckeyes’ cannot afford to get complacent.
Ohio State has won the last two but has not been convincing in each and while they hold the Indian Sign over the Terrapins, the 15.5-point spread is fair considering the hosts’ QB change.
The Terrapins can be backed at 3/4 in receipt of those points, while the points total is set at 57.5 points. It is 10/11 that there will be fewer points than that.
ARKANSAS @ MISSISSIPPI STATE
The Arkansas Razorbacks have won just two games this season so won’t be going bowling for a fourth consecutive year. They are also winless in the SEC, but they have not lost their fight, as they rallied late in a 24-17 defeat by LSU last week.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-4, 2-4) were kept scoreless by Alabama last week, which snapped a two-game winning streak. However, they are heavy favourites to win this at 1/25 on the Moneyline.
Arkansas has won 16 of the 28 previous meetings, but this will be an emotional day for the home side as 20 seniors on Mississippi State’s roster will play their last game at Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday.
While the Bulldogs have not quite lived up to pre-season expectations, their defense is as good as advertised and it is little wonder that they are considered 21.5-point favourites at odds of 17/20.
MISSOURI @ TENNESSEE
This is one of the more fascinating clashes of the weekend, with Tennessee looking for a win to become bowl eligible (six wins makes a team eligible) facing a Missouri Tigers (6-4) that is a much better team than its record implies.
Three of the Tigers’ losses came against Georgia (where the Bulldogs got a lot of help from officials and turned the ball over three times), at South Carolina (where a monsoon helped the hosts to gather their composure and make a successful comeback) and at Alabama. We all know how good the Crimson Tide is.
Their fourth loss, to Kentucky, came on a last-second touchdown pass after a questionable pass-interference call.
Tennessee has a chance to win its sixth game on senior day, a week after defeating the No11-ranked Kentucky 24-7, but will have difficulty stopping the dual-headed monster at the running back position in the guise of Larry Roundtree III and Damarea Crockett.
The Vols are 17/10 to win on the Moneyline, with the Tigers at 4/11. Missou is asked to concede 5.5 points on the handicap at odds of 5/6 and that seems fair in what should be a cracking contest.
WEST VIRGINIA @ OKLAHOMA STATE
Oklahoma put up 702 yards of offense on Oklahoma State last week and while the two-touchdown underdog Cowboys gave it everything, they came out on the wrong end of a 48-47 verdict.
Whether they have the ability to live with West Virginia’s high-powered attack is another question. They have covered the handicap just once in their last seven contests after allowing more than 280 yards passing in the previous game.
West Virginia easily dealt with TCU, routing them 47-10 last week to move to 8-1 for the year. QB Will Grier is likely to become the first passer taken in next April’s NFL draft, which will no doubt interest fans of Denver, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and Miami. He has 207 completions for 2,961 yards, with 31 TDs and eight interceptions, and a 69 per cent completion percentage. Grier also had over 300 yards passing in his last three games.
Yet Cowboys’ passer Taylor Cornelius also put up video game numbers against Oklahoma’s defense with 34 completions for 501 yards and three touchdowns. The issue is not with the attack, it is with the defense, which has been virtually non-existent this season, and they have conceded an average of 31.7 points per game and 426.9 total yards per game.
Many bettors think this West Virginia defense, which was thought to be a work in progress at best at the start of the season, is not as bad as first feared. It is certainly better than Oklahoma’s defense and it is very unlikely Cornelius will put up 500 yards again.
West Virginia might make a few more stops and thus they are considered 4.5-point favourites at 5/6, with Oklahoma State available at 17/20 in receipt of 4.5 points.
The Mountaineers can be backed to win at odds of 4/9, with the hosts on offer at 6/4.
CINCINNATI @ CENTRAL FLORIDA
The AAC East division title is on the line in the early hours of Sunday, with the No24-ranked Cincinnati Bearcats taking on the No11-ranked UCF Knights.
Cincinnati won its third straight game since suffering its lone loss (an overtime defeat to Temple), when beating South Florida 35-23 at home last Saturday.
UCF managed to remain unbeaten and took its win streak to 22 games when defeating Navy 35-24.
This will be a stiff test for UCF. Cincinnati boast the seventh-best defense in the nation in terms of limiting opponents’ points, allowing just 14.9 per tilt. They are also averaging 35 points per game themselves, with much of the damage being done on the ground, raking up 235.8 yards per contest. Michael Warren II is the leading rusher with 206 carries for 1,082 yards and 17 scores.
Yet UCF is equally handy on the ground, ranking 4th in the nation, averaging 271.4 yards per game. They average 44.2 points per game and allow 21.2 points per game, so both teams would figure to be fairly evenly matched.
Experience of winning big games counts for plenty and the Bearcats head into a hostile environment, too, so it is little wonder Genting Casino has the Knights as 3/10 Moneyline favourites. The visitors can be backed to keep within an 8.5-point handicap at odds of 3/4.
Those seeking College Football picks against the handicap spread may wish to take a look at Lindyssports.com, America’s leading football authority.
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