12 Jun 2019
Can Alabama cover a lofty spread when they host Mississippi State? Will Louisville roll over against Syracuse? We offer analysis and odds on some of this week’s NCAA Division 1 games.
LOUISVILLE @ SYRACUSE
Louisville were expected to have a down-turn this year, with QB Lamar Jackson being drafted by the Baltimore Ravens, but their three subsequent starters have come nowhere near to the talented Jackson in terms of production. The Cardinals (2-7) have lost six straight games since beating Western Kentucky 20-17 and they have suffered heavy losses to the likes of Virginia, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Clemson (last week, when the Tigers produced almost 700 yards of offense in a 77-16 win).
This season was always going to be hard, but head coach Bobby Petrino now finds he is clinging to his job, such is the lack of production on both sides of the ball. They can’t get their running game going and therefore the defense has been on the field longer than it should for much of the season and is consequently worn down.
They play just six days after the crushing by Clemson and the overriding feeling is, while they may not have as much talent, some players have simply mailed it in.
Syracuse may well take this more lightly than they should and that is the concern when punters are being asked to give up 21.5 points on the Genting Casino handicap at odds of 17/20. It is also a consideration that they gave up 500 yards-plus to North Carolina and North Carolina State, although both were victories.
What they are good at is protecting the ball and QB Eric Dungey is having a terrific season with just four turnovers. The offensive line has protected him well for the most part and credit must go to that line in large part for his 13 touchdown passes and 10 rushing TDs.
Syracuse should roll in Dungey’s final home game and Louisville has covered the handicap in just one of their nine games this season.
FRESNO STATE @ BOISE STATE
Fresno State have been on something of a tear in recent weeks, putting 50 points on Hawaii and 48 last week on UNLV, taking their record to 8-1. Their only loss came in Week 2 against Minnesota (21-14).
Boise State’s schedule has been a little tougher and they are 7-2 going into the Mountain West clash, with their two losses coming against Oklahoma State and San Diego State.
Fresno rely on senior QB Marcus McMaryion, who is ranked in the top 10 in the country in completion percentage (70.9) and passing efficiency rating (165.44). He has completed 67.7 percent of his passes on third down and 72.1 percent in the redzone.
As a result, the Bulldogs are averaging 40.4 points per game, but they head to Boise State, where they have not won since 1984. The Broncos are 111-8 in 199 games at home since 2000, and Fresno State are asked to cover a 2.5-point handicap at odds of 5/6.
The Broncos like to set the tempo, and are averaging 16.5 points per game in the first quarter, while the Bulldogs have started slowly on the road, averaging just six points in the first 15 minutes away from Bulldog stadium.
While Fresno’s pass rush is not great, Boise State’s offensive line has had issues in pass protection, so Brett Rypien must hope that the Bulldogs don’t get home on a regular basis.
Fresno State has also had a few issues running the ball against defences that are not as stout as Boise’s, so keeping McMaryion in the pocket will be one of the keys for the hosts, who are 11/10 Moneyline underdogs.
MISSISSIPPI STATE @ ALABAMA
No1-ranked Alabama swept aside LSU in Death Valley last week and are considered 24.5-point favourites to beat Mississippi State, who are ranked No16 in the nation.
However, that looks a big number when you consider it is the Bulldogs, not LSU, Alabama or Georgia that boast the top-ranked defense in the SEC at the moment. They have the offensive line to protect QB Nick Fitzgerald time to work, while the defensive line has been penetrating backfields consistently and stopping opponents’ running games.
Their pass defense is not bad, either, although it has been hit for 200 yards or more in three of the last four outings.
Alabama are relentless, but they enter this contest off an emotional win over LSU, where they ran the ball well against an effective defensive front. The 29-0 win did not come without cost, though. Running back Najee Harris has an ankle sprain and QB Tua Tagovailoa is carrying a knee injury, but should be ready to play.
It is possible that, with Alabama already in the SEC Championship game, there could be a little let-down so there may be a few punters willing to take the 24.5 points on offer with the Bulldogs on the handicap at 3/4. But, as we have said before, the Crimson Tide is relentless.
Those seeking College Football picks against the handicap spread may wish to take a look at Lindyssports.com, America’s leading football authority.
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