12 Jun 2019
The College Football Bowl season continues with some fascinating match-ups. We offer analysis and odds on some of this week’s big games and ask whether the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors can maintain their great home record against Louisiana Tech at Aloha Stadium, and ponder whether BYU can cover a lofty spread against Western Michigan.
UAB @ NOTHERN ILLINOIS
The Boca Raton Bowl pits two conference winners against each other on Tuesday night, as the Conference-USA champion Alabama-Birmingham Blazers face MAC title winner Northern Illinois Huskies.
UAB is a nice story. The football program was disbanded following the 2014 season but was reinstated in a year later, with the team returning to the field and Conference-USA play in 2017.
The Blazers surpassed all expectations with an 8-5 record last season, capped with an appearance against Ohio in the Bahamas Bowl. This year, UAB went 10-3 and landed its first C-USA title.
The Huskies have won four MAC titles since 2011 and claimed the prize this term in dramatic fashion, coming from 29-10 down in the third quarter against Buffalo, before reeling off 20 unanswered points.
This is the team’s first meeting. UAB is 0-2 in Bowl games, while the Huskies are 4-8.
The Blazers will try and establish the run with Spencer Brown, who averages 4.7 yards per carry and ended the regular season with 1,149 yards and 16 scores.
He faces a tough test against the Huskies, who rank first in the MAC in rush defense, limiting opponents to just 2.7 yards a carry and 109.7 yards a game.
Northern Illinois’ offense will also try to lean on its run to set up the pass. The Huskies posted 553 carries to just 372 passing attempts in the regular season, and they face a Blazers team that ranked first in C-USA in scoring defense (17.3), limiting opponents to 4.9 yards a play.
It figures to be a tight battle, with UAB tabbed at the 8/13 favourite and Northern Illinois at 11/10.
The Blazers are considered 2.5-point favourites on the Genting Casino College Football handicap at odds of 17/20, and the points total is set at 43.0. For more odds on the Boca Raton Bowl, click here.
SAN DIEGO STATE @ OHIO
The Frisco Bowl, which takes place at 1am on Thursday (UK time), sees two teams from opposite sides of the US clashing for the first time.
San Diego State Aztecs have lost four of their last five coming into this and while they won seven games, they went just 4-4 in Mountain West conference play.
However, they did upset Arizona State and also started out 6-1. They were competitive in their last four road games, but slipped to defeats in close conference games on the road to Nevada (28-24), UNLV (27-24) and Fresno State (23-14). They capped things off with a one-point loss in overtime at home to Hawaii (31-30).
Ohio Bobcats came on strong as the season wore on and, from a 3-3 start, ended 8-4 (6-2 MAC). They won five of their final six MAC games, including a 52-17 rout of eventual East division champ Buffalo.
The Bobcats lead the MAC in rushing with an average of nearly 262 yards per game, yet the Aztecs are surrendering 94.5 yards per game on the ground, making them the nation’s fourth stingiest run defence.
Keep an eye out for speedy Aztecs’ running back Juwan Washington who, despite injuries, has compiled 870 yards and 10 touchdowns in eight games. He will do well to get much change out of the Bobcats’ run defense which ranks No. 2 in the MAC, allowing 135.8 rushing yards per game.
Aztecs’ last four losses have come by a total of 13 points, so bettors should not be put off their 11/10 odds. They are also 4/6 in receipt of 3.5 points on the handicap in what could be a close game. See more odds for the Frisco Bowl here.
MARSHALL @ SOUTH FLORIDA
Marshall has won six straight Bowl games and are 11-3 overall in such games. In the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa, they take on a South Florida Bulls team that lost its last five games.
The Bulls won their first seven however, and will be literally playing a game at home, as this takes place at Raymond James Stadium, home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
It might make little difference, as they are 1-5 against the handicap at home this season and Marshall has won each of its five Bowl games in the Doc Holliday era.
Marshall’s defense should be the difference. They have given up an average of 22.0 points per game in the regular season, despite playing Power Five teams like Virginia Tech and North Carolina State. Conversely, the Bulls failed to score 24 points in any of their last four games and even if starting QB Blake Barnett does play, he will be limited with a shoulder injury.
Marshall are 6/10 to win, with South Florida at 23/20. The Thundering Herd are 7/10 to successfully concede 1.5 points on the handicap. See more odds for the Gasparilla Bowl here.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL @ TOLEDO
What could be better for College Football aficionados than a clash between Conference-USA and MAC Conference foes on an island paradise?
The Bahamas Bowl is the reward for the FIU Golden Panthers, despite a 28-25 season finale loss to Marshall, which cost them a spot in the C-USA title game.
The Toledo Rockets finished their season with four wins in five, including a 51-13 drubbing of Central Michigan in their last outing. The last time these two met was in the 2010 Little Caesars Bowl, which FIU won 34-32.
Toledo finished last year with a 34-0 Dollar General Bowl loss to Appalachian State, while FIU were trounced 28-3 by Temple in the Gasparilla Bowl.
FIU has a stout offensive line and QB James Morgan is able to control the game with one of the nation’s most efficient passing attacks. They don’t commit many turnovers, either.
Toledo’s running game is among the MAC’s best, generating 200 yards or more in eight games, including four of the last five, and receiver Diontae Johnson has speed to burn – if they can find a way to get the ball into his hands.
The Rockets’ pass rush is a decent group, led by defensive end Tuzar Skipper and Reggie Howard, who could make life uncomfortable for the usually unflappable Morgan.
FIU’s strength of schedule was not a tough one, though, and that is arguably the reason why Toledo’s odds are 4/11 to win. They are 5/6 on the handicap to successfully concede 5.5 points. For more odds on the Bahamas Bowl, click here.
WESTERN MICHIGAN @ BYU
The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl usually pits a Mountain West Conference team against a Mid-American Conference team. BYU, an independent, filled the Mountain West’s spot in the game, as Boise State will instead head to Dallas to play Boston College in the Responder Bowl on Boxing Day.
This game takes place on Boise State’s blue turf at Albertsons Stadium, where BYU lost 21-16 to the Broncos just a month ago. The BYU Cougars are 0-5 all-time at Albertsons Stadium, with all five losses coming at the hands of Boise State, but they are expected to win, as the Genting Casino odds suggest.
To cover the 11.5-point handicap, BYU will have to corral the Western Michigan running game. LeVante Bellamy has 190 carries for 1,172 yards and six touchdowns, while Jamarui Bogan has rushed 156 times for 702 yards and 15 TDs. The WMU Broncos average 33.17 points per game while surrendering 33.33 per game.
BYU’s most recent bowl appearance was in the 2016 Poinsettia Bowl, where they beat Wyoming 24-21, taking their bowl record to 14-20-1.
They should extend that record with a win, as the Broncos may not have enough defensively to live with the BYU attack. For more odds on the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, click here.
MEMPHIS @ WAKE FOREST
Memphis Tigers appear to have a favourable match-up against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in the Birmingham Bowl.
While Mike Norvell’s team has gone 0-2 in bowl games in the last two years, they would appear to have a good chance of getting the win, since they are 8-1 against the spread when facing teams that allow 31 or more points per game and 6-0 against the spread versus teams that allow 4.75 or more rushing yards per carry in that span.
And they have a dynamic running back in the shape of Darrell Henderson, who should really have been in the reckoning for the Doak Walker Award, since he rushed for 1,909 yards and 19 touchdowns this season. He averaged 8.9 yards per carry and goes up against a Demon Deacons’ defense that allowed 191.3 yards per game and 29 touchdowns this season.
Wake Forest QB Jamie Newman has a great receiver in Greg Dortch, but getting the ball to him may be problematic, since Newman is raw and only playing because of injuries ahead of him on the depth chart.
While the Tigers do give up plenty of yards through the air, they have only conceded 23 TDs in the passing game and if it gets to a shootout, Tigers’ backers will fancy their chances that they can cover the 3.5-point handicap at odds of 17/20. For more Birmingham Bowl odds, click here.
HOUSTON @ ARMY
The Armed Forces Bowl sees Houston Cougars taking on the Army Black Knights at TCU’s Amon G. Carter Stadium in Forth Worth, on Saturday.
Army lost their first game against Duke, but their only other loss came at Oklahoma, whom they took to overtime. They rattled off eight successive wins to complete a 10-2 record, yet padded their schedule with FBS teams like Colgate and Lafayette.
Kelvin Hopkins needs 44 yards to surpass 1,000 yards for the season, but while that does not seem prolific for a quarterback, it is a big number for an offense that runs a triple-option attack.
Houston would be marginal favourites had they not struggled down the stretch with injuries, including to quarterback D’Eriq King, and lost three of the final four games to cost them a shot at the American Athletic Conference title.
They will also be without All-American defensive tackle Ed Oliver, who announced he will skip the Bowl game to begin preparing for the NFL draft.
As it is, Houston is considered 13/10 to win, with Army at 1/2, whose strength is running the ball. They rank third in the Football Bowl Subdivision in rushing with an average 303 yards per game, and fullback Darnell Woolfolk leads the team with 823 yards and 14 touchdowns.
The Black Knights will be helped by the fact that Houston’s defensive line is missing four starters. For along with Oliver, Jerard Carter, Payton Turner and Isaiah Chambers are out with injuries. That is not a pretty prospect when your run defense ranks 97th in the nation, giving up 197.1 yards per game. For more odds on the Armed Forces Bowl, click here.
BUFFALO @ TROY
The Dollar General Bowl, which will be played at Mobile’s Ladd-Peebles Stadium on Saturday, pits the Buffalo Bulls against the Troy Trojans.
Trojans finished with a winning record under head coach Neal Brown but a last-game defeat by Appalachian State cost them a spot in the Sun Belt championship game. They did have to play without top receiver Damion Wills, however, and their 9-3 season should not be sniffed at.
Troy is 4-3 all-time in Bowl games, having won its last three, and seeks a third successive 10-win season. The Trojans had not had double-digit wins before Brown’s arrival four years ago.
The Bulls finished 10-3 and took the MAC East Division title, in large part due to the play of QB Tyree Jackson, was the conference offensive player of the year. The junior passer threw for 27 touchdowns and 2,857 yards in 2018, adding another seven scores with his legs.
The Bulls may well be a little deflated in conceding 20 unanswered points to gift Northern Illinois a 30-29 victory in the Mid-American Conference championship game, but they are considered 7/10 favourites, with the Tojans at Evens on the Genting Casino College Football Odds moneyline.
Troy boasts an explosive offense, they have decent speed in key areas, and it must be remembered that they went to Nebraska in September and came away with a win. It could be that bettors find a bit of value siding with the underdog Trojans at 17/20 in receipt of 2.0-points on the handicap. For ore odds on the Dollar General Bowl, click here.
HAWAII @ LOUISIANA TECH
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (8-5) are ironically the road team for the Hawaii Bowl at their Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, against the hosting Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (7-5).
Mountain West teams have won this Bowl for the last three years, with Fresno State beating Houston 33-27 last season.
Hawaii has been to 11 Bowl games in history, with seven being in their home stadium and their record is 4-3 in those games. They last appeared in the Hawaii Bowl in 2016, recording a victory over Middle Tennessee. Louisiana Tech is 6-3-1 in 10 previous bowl games and they have won their last four Bowl games under Skip Holtz.
It is worth noting, perhaps, that the Warriors are 8-2 all-time vs Louisiana Tech, who have never won in five previous visits to Hawaii.
This year, the Warriors gained their first winning season since 2010 and while they suffered a four-game slump in mid-season, they closed out with two wins. Their potent attack looked like the Hawaii teams of old, averaging 34 points and 321 yards passing per game, with QB Cole McDonald and receiver John Ursua leading the charge.
There appears to be very little between the two teams, given their respective odds. Hawaii are available at 4/5, while Louisiana Tech is a 17/20 shot on the Moneyline.
Given the historic record, Hawaii might be value on their own patch, but layers are expecting plenty of points, with the line set at 60.5. See all the odds for the Hawaii Bowl by clicking here.
Those seeking College Football picks against the handicap spread may wish to take a look at Lindyssports.com, America’s leading football authority.
