1 Apr 2022
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Thomas Tuchel and his men have seemingly come out of their bad patch in the middle of the season, which saw the Blues only win four league games of a possible 13 (W4-D7-L2).
Despite not losing many matches, a club of Chelsea’s quality should not be drawing against the likes of Burnley, Everton and Brighton twice. The Blues have now won their last five in a row, including a crucial 2-0 win over London rivals Tottenham.
Brentford have boosted their prospects with two wins from their past three outings, coming over two teams below them in Norwich and Burnley.
Those are their only victories from their past 11 league games however, suffering eight defeats across this period, as their early-season form has deserted them.
Although the Bees are three positions away from the relegation zone, we still can’t see them getting relegated given they’re currently eight points clear of Watford, owing to that fantastic start to the season.
Chelsea +1.5 Goals And To Score First
Chelsea have only lost four of their last 34 games against newly-promoted sides (W24-D6-L4).
When we look at their home record against these teams, we can see that they have only lost once (W12-D3-L1), which was last year when West Brom (5-2) decided to turn into prime Barcelona and play Chelsea off the park.
In the 16 games against newly-promoted sides that have been played at Stamford Bridge, eight of them have resulted in a clean sheet for Chelsea and there were no 0-0 draws, so they were all won-to-nil.
There is some value in this market considering the bookies are offering just over evens for this bet, but we want to find something better.
Chelsea have scored +1.5 goals in 13 out of the 16 aforementioned matches, but the bookmakers price for this is surprisingly long despite the common occurrences of this market.
There have only been four away teams that have scored first at Stamford Bridge (Liverpool, Man City, Leeds and Manchester Utd) and considering that Brentford barely have the attacking prowess of Leeds, we think this is also good value.
Brentford have only scored first in four away matches and they were against Norwich, Wolves, West Ham and Aston Villa.
PREDICTION:
CHELSEA +1.5 GOALS AND TO SCORE FIRST
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