12 Jun 2019
Tottenham have one foot in the Carabao Cup Final following their 1-0 first-leg win at Wembley, and while Mauricio Pochettino will be desperate to bring some long-overdue silverware to the club, things have taken a turn for the worse in the last couple of weeks.
Spurs were poor in their smash-and-grab 2-1 win over struggling Fulham at Craven Cottage on Sunday. They should have been dead and buried at half-time and only Harry Winks’ last-minute winner kept their slim Premier League title hopes alive.
This is a crucial period for Spurs, who are still fighting on all fronts. They sit third in the EPL – albeit nine points behind leaders Liverpool – have a two-legged quarter-final of the Champions League to look forward to, and they are through to the fourth round of the FA Cup.
However, since beating Chelsea in the Carabao Cup first leg, they have lost England captain Harry Kane to an ankle injury, Son Hueng-Min is absent through Asia Cup duty with South Korea, midfielder Moussa Sissoko is out with a groin strain, and midfielder Moussa Dembele has been sold to Chinese Super League side Guangzhou R&F for £11m.
Can Spurs overcome lack of depth?
To make matters worse, Dele Alli is the latest to succumb to injury. The England striker looked in a bad way when pulling up sharply against Fulham with a suspected left hamstring injury.
That means Tottenham now have limited options up front with two key Cup fixtures upcoming (they travel to Crystal Palace in the FA Cup on Sunday) and it could be that their lack of investment during the summer is about to come back and bite them.
It is likely that Georges-Kevon Nkoudou, who replaced Alli and set up Winks’ winner at Craven Cottage, will continue to deputise, but even with Eric Dier returning, Spurs are down to the bare bones.
Statistically, Kane’s injury is a hammer blow to Tottenham. Since Mauricio Pochettino became Spurs manager, Kane has scored a league-high 119 Premier League goals, accounting for 36 per cent of Tottenham’s total of 333 goals in his reign.
Beating Fulham masked their struggles to a degree, but it must be remembered that victory was their first in the league without Kane or Son featuring for almost five years (since beating Southampton 3-2 in March 2014). Back-to-back victories without either in the line-up would be going against that particular trend.
Has Sarri lost the dressing room?
If life is difficult for Tottenham, who are 9/2 to win in 90 minutes and 4/5 to reach the final, things are far from rosy at London neighbours Chelsea.
Maurizio Sarri was not shy in coming forward to criticise his players after their lacklustre 2-0 defeat at Arsenal on Saturday, saying the Chelsea players are ‘extremely difficult to motivate’. Cynics would argue that motivating players is the manager’s job so, in effect, he is admitting to his own failings.
An irate Sarri, who opted to speak Italian in his press conference to properly execute his message, hinted that changes are on the way, and on Monday it seemed certain that striker Alvaro Morata’s loan deal to Atletico Madrid would be completed.
It also seems likely that Gonzalo Higuain will arrive at Stamford Bridge to replace him, once AC Milan secure a replacement. Another who could be on the move is Callum Hudson-Odoi, who is reported to have turned down a new £85,000 a week offer.
While some have said that Sarri has lost the dressing room, Chelsea are still in the Premier League’s top four, have a home tie against Sheffield Wednesday in the fourth round of the FA Cup, and are in the last 32 of the Europa League.
Historically, they also have a fair chance of over-turning their 1-0 deficit on Thursday evening.
For since losing 2-1 in February 1990, Chelsea have lost just one of their last 28 home league matches against Spurs (W18 D9). That sole defeat (a 3-1 reverse) came last April in the Premier League.
They have subsequently lost twice since to Spurs, both at Wembley. Three successive losses to the Lilywhites is their worst run of form against them since losing five consecutive clashes between 1961 and 1963, but they are 6/10 to win this Carabao Cup clash in 90 minutes and are 19/20 to reach the final.
Six of the last eight meetings yielded three goals or more and it is 5/6 that this will be the case again.
Another stat worth noting is that while Spurs have scored at least once on their last four trips to Stamford Bridge, they have not netted on five consecutive trips since registering on each of seven league visits between October 1956 and September 1963. Therefore, those who put faith in trends might suggest that Chelsea could be value at 23/20 to keep a clean sheet.
The Blues are also 6/4 to win to nil and, given that Chelsea have scored at least twice at home against Tottenham in seven of their last eight meetings, the correct score market might be worth a look. It is 6/1 for Chelsea to win 2-0.
With Manchester City holding an unassailable 9-0 first-leg lead over Burton Albion in the other semi-final, it is little wonder that Pep Guardiola’s side are 4/9 to win the Carabao Cup. Tottenham are 7/2 second favourites, with Chelsea at 9/2.
For all the odds on this Carabao Cup semi-final second leg, click here.
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