20 Sept 2019
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Both sides suffered defeat on Tuesday evening in Europe, but though Liverpool hold the higher expectations of the two, we’d expect the midweek results to affect Chelsea to a greater extent.
Not only did Frank Lampard’s men hold the home advantage, but they also faced the weaker opponent – a Valencia side suffering from the departure of a popular and successful manager, compared to the tough proposition of Carlo Ancelotti’s Napoli.
Academy Graduates Leading The Way
Further, one of the bright sparks for Chelsea this season has been the performances from some of their academy graduates, though Mason Mount is now an injury doubt ahead of this fixture after a bruising tackle on his ankle by former Arsenal midfielder Francis Coquelin.
He’s not the only concern however, with it unclear what role if any star duo N’Golo Kante and Antonio Rudiger will play, as well as left-back Emerson.
The latter has pretty much ended up as first choice at Chelsea not because he’s a world beater, but because Marcos Alonso’s defensive frailties have been exposed, with the Spaniards’ positioning, concentration and strength in the tackle all being called into question.
The switch from the wing-back system employed under Antonio Conte, which afforded him greater protection owing to the additional centre-back, to a more traditional back four caused plenty of problems.
However, Lampard appears to have recognized this with Chelsea lining up in a 3-4-3 in their past two outings, though they still conceded three times across these.
Liverpool Expected To Score
Liverpool’s failure to find the net in Naples was the first time since their 3-0 loss at the Nou Camp in the Champions League semi-finals. Jurgen Klopp will be disappointed, but not alarmed, as it’s not as though his team didn’t create any chances.
They still had 13 efforts during the game, while Sadio Mane put too much weight on an attempted pass to Mo Salah that would surely otherwise have resulted in a goal. The Reds have already racked up 15 strikes in the league during the current campaign, so it’s hard to envisage them drawing another blank at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea Quality In Front Of Goal
Indeed, Chelsea certainly haven’t been at all secure defensively this term and going back to the start of pre-season (where they fielded some strong line-ups), they can only boast the solitary clean sheet from 14 appearances under Lampard now.
Even that came against Irish outfit St. Patrick’s Athletic, while it’s impossible to forget the four they conceded on the opening day at Old Trafford.
They have at least demonstrated their own qualities going forwards however and even had 22 shots despite not scoring when hosting Valencia.
Chelsea And Liverpool To Draw 1-1
The continued absence of Alisson Becker and the potential involvement of Callum Hudson-Odoi is only going to increase the likelihood of Chelsea registering on the board.
However, to eke out some value, we’d prefer to couple both teams to score with the stalemate. The game at Napoli was Liverpool’s first real proper test on the road this season, with their clash against Arsenal coming at Anfield, while they only beat one of their ‘Big Six’ rivals on their travels last term as they drew three of five matches.
Across all competitions, Liverpool have only beaten Chelsea once since January 2017 in seven attempts, which came at Anfield, as four of these finished 1-1 over 90 minutes, with the most recent clash in August during the UEFA Super Cup.
Liverpool are the better team no doubt, but away from Anfield against quality opposition they shouldn’t be priced up at evens.
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