13 Jul 2020
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After the break, Brighton fans would have feared the worst when looking at their remaining fixtures, though a last-gasp winner over the Gunners in the first game back set the tone for them, and now barring a calamitous final couple of games (and results going wildly against them elsewhere) have found themselves safe from the drop.
They’ve faced six of the top nine in their last eight fixtures and Graham Potter will be over the moon with nine points from those games.
Newcastle were in fine fettle having gone six games unbeaten either side of the break, though they’ve yet to recover from a 5-0 demolition job by Man City and have now failed to pick up a point in three outings.
Defeat against relegation-battling Watford wouldn’t have sat easy, while Spurs’ 3-1 victory at St. James’ was only their fourth away win of the season, and their first by more than a single strike, so we’re certainly not confident in backing the visitors here.
The Seagulls have lost three home games on the trot now and by an aggregate scoreline of 11-1. These games did however come against Man City, Liverpool and Man United, which is certainly a mitigating factor, especially given the out-of-sorts Newcastle they’ll face here have nothing to play for.
With the south coast side all but safe as well, we’d expect both sides to take their foot off the pedal slightly and so we’ll ignore the outright in what is a tricky fixture to call.
Under 2.5 Goals
What’s telling is how tight Brighton tend to keep it at home against the weaker sides in the division, with eight of their nine games hosting 10th-placed Burnley or below featuring a maximum of two goals.
This has never been the most enthralling fixture, with again eight of nine clashes this decade seeing under 2.5 goals land across all competitions, including each of the last five in the Premier League since 2017/18, so we’d be surprised if this one didn’t follow suit with nothing on the line.
0.5pts: Under 1.5 Goals
In fact, there’s only been a total of four goals in the five meetings between these sides since they were promoted together, and neither team pose a real goalscoring threat.
Although Neal Maupay’s 10 goals isn’t a poor return for his first season in the top flight, inconsistency has got the better of him and he only has three goals this side of Christmas.
In what is effectively a dead rubber, it’s worth a small punt on just the single goal or none at all.
0.5pts: Under 1.5 Goals At 2/1
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