11 May 2021
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Danny Welbeck must have thought his late strike against the Hammers had secured all three points for Brighton, though Said Benrahma had other ideas and his goal has kept his side firmly in the hunt for European football next season.
The draw has done nothing for Brighton in terms of the outcome of their season, and up against the newly crowned champions they’ll be thankful they’re not in a relegation scrap at this stage.
That draw establishes Brighton as the side with the most stalemates in the league this year, though we wouldn’t be so sure of that outcome again considering no side has had fewer draws than Man City, with the champions not seeing a single draw in any of their last 38 matches going back to mid-December (W34-L4).
This will be City’s final match against the current bottom-half sides, and their form against such sides this season should leave the Seagulls with little hope as they’ve picked up 55 points from a possible 57 so far.
However, you would forgive Pep Guardiola’s side for having one eye on next weekend’s Champions League, and now it’s even more unclear than usual what team he is going to field. Their squad depth is so great that ultimately any team he fields is going to pose a threat, though there are a few players that have been statistically less impressive this season.
Multibet Exact Score: Man City 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1
One of those is Nathan Ake, who has a W5-D1-L3 record in the league this season, while their goals conceded per game goes from 0.56 when he’s not featured from the off, to 1.56 when he has, while they’ve kept just one clean sheet in five when Ederson hasn’t started since the beginning of last season, including conceding three to Newcastle last weekend, so defensively their team selection here could have an effect.
What has been a constant this season though is that City haven’t been as prolific in front of goal as in previous seasons under Guardiola, with defensive stability the basis of their title charge this season.
Indeed, prior to their thrilling 4-3 win over Newcastle on Friday night, they hadn’t scored more than twice in any of their last 13 matches, so with their focus understandably on the 29th May, there’s value in backing a low scorer.
The Seagulls have conceded an average of 1.3 goals per game against the traditional ‘big six’ this season, including suffering a narrow 1-0 defeat at the Etihad in the reverse fixture while they haven’t conceded more than twice in any of their last 19 games, conceding just 14 times across that run so another low scorer looks the best bet here.
Multibet Exact Score: Man City 1-0, 2-0 Ot 2-1 At 7/4
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