30 Jan 2020
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Villa have recovered well from a 6-1 humbling at the hands of Man City a few weeks ago, securing a point away at Brighton, before claiming home wins over relegation rivals Watford and then Leicester midweek in the cup.
Those victories may have come courtesy of 95th and 93rd-minute interventions respectively, but the Hornets had won four of six unbeaten games heading into that fixture under new boss Nigel Pearson, while Villa now have a cup final in the bag.
The win over Watford also lifted Dean Smith’s men out of the bottom three, but they could easily be dragged back there in next to no time with five of the bottom-six sides bunched tightly in the table.
Villa +1 Handicap
However, with their last four on the road across all competitions yielding a win at Burnley and stalemates with Leicester and Brighton, the visitors look worth getting onside at the prices.
Eddie Howe will hope victory over fellow bottom-six outfit Brighton can herald a change in fortunes, but with that just Bournemouth’s second win in 13 league games now (W2-D1-L10) it’s hard to get too excited about their prospects.
That’s especially the case as success over the Seagulls was preceded by a run of four straight clashes with those bottom-six relegation rivals, as they trailed at both half-time and full-time on each occasion.
Villa have done rather better against such teams this season (W4-D2-L2). Given their hosts are still missing a number of injured players, as they have been now for practically the entire campaign, we’d expect more of the same from them this weekend.
David Brooks has been a major loss for Bournemouth after such an encouraging debut season, while Joshua King, Junior Stanislas, Jack Stacey, Chris Mepham and Philip Billing have all picked up problems in January.
The loss of Norwegian international King is a bitter blow for the Cherries, as without him in the starting line-up they’ve lost 77% of their games since the start of last season, compared to a comparatively healthier 45% when he takes to the field.
Meanwhile, Villa’s injury concerns are limited to midfielder John McGinn, without whom they’ve coped reasonably well, while Pepe Reina appears as spritely between the sticks in the absence of Tom Heaton and Jed Steer.
Goal scored in minutes 76-90
The chance of a late goal is also worth looking at in this game. Villa’s late winners in their last two means that across all tournaments, 12 of their past 13 games have seen a goal beyond the 70th minute, including each of the last eight.
The same has occurred in nine of Bournemouth’s last 13 matches following their late consolation effort in the FA Cup on Monday.
Each of those games featured at least one strike after the 76th minute, so the 76-90 bracket on offer is appealing.
Aston Villa + 1 Handicap At 8/11
Goal scored In Minutes 76-90 (Yes) At 19/20
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