1 Aug 2020
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The Bavarians have since wrapped up an eighth consecutive Bundesliga title and added the DFB-Pokal to their trophy cabinet for good measure, though it remains to be seen whether a whole month without competitive football will help them or not.
However, it’s hard to ignore a run of 25 victories from 26 unbeaten outings dating back into December, including 17 on the bounce now since mid-February, while they’ve been utterly irresistible in the final third.
Of those 26 games, Bayern netted at least twice on 22 occasions and a minimum three or more goals in 17 of them.
That spells bad news for a Chelsea defence that has hardly been watertight this season, with the 54 league goals they shipped more than anyone else amongst the top half of the table.
That’s 21, 19 and 18 worse off than Liverpool, Man City and Man Utd’s defensive tallies respectively, so they should be fearful of a Bayern attack that hit a century of league goals for the first time since 1971/72.
Bayern To Win And Over 2.5 Goals
Champions League knockouts can understandably produce a lot of nervous, cagey affairs, but barring Liverpool levels of recovery, this tie is all but over and more action should be on the agenda.
When a side has won by a margin of at least three goals in the first leg, the return fixture has also seen a minimum of three goals 12 out of 15 games since 2014/15, as eight featured at least four strikes and both teams scored in 10.
Complacency can often play its role, perhaps most notably when Barca avenged a 4-0 humiliation by PSG in 2016/17 with a 6-1 response at the Nou Camp, as well as Liverpool’s 4-0 semi-final win over the Catalans last year at Anfield.
However, those were extraordinary results and Chelsea would do well just to save face here rather than entertaining ambitions of a ‘special night’.
Injuries
Whereas Bayern have had time to nurse any injuries or niggles, with long-term absentee Niklas Sule making a successful comeback in a friendly win over Marseille and Benjamin Pavard the only concern for Hansi Flick, Lampard has an increasingly crowded treatment room.
He lost captain Cesar Azpilicueta, Pedro and rising star Christian Pulisic to injuries in the FA Cup final, and the latter in particular will be sorely missed.
Willian and Pedro look to have played their last games for the club, while summer signings Timo Werner and Hakim Ziyech are ineligible, so attacking options are slim with Mason Mount likely to play wide out of position and Callum Hudson-Odoi set to make a rare start.
Further, Jorginho and Marcos Alonso are suspended here, Billy Gilmour is unavailable following knee surgery last month and Ruben Loftus-Cheek faces a late fitness test, while N’Golo Kante was an unused sub against Arsenal and will be lacking match fitness.
Chelsea’s selection problems dissuade us from backing them to find the net for sure, but they’ll still pose a goal threat nonetheless.
A common complaint under Lampard’s predecessor Maurizio Sarri was that they weren’t the most exciting side to watch, but that charge can hardly be levelled at Lampard, with 16 of Chelsea’s last 21 games featuring at least three goals, including seven of the past nine.
Bayern should win this one and are capable of racking up big numbers, so Bayern & Over 2.5 Goals appeals.
Bayern To Win And Over 2.5 Goals At 8/11
BAYERN MUNICH V CHELSEA ODDS AVAILABLE HERE
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ODDS ARE CORRECT AS OF 6/8/2020 HOWEVER ARE SUBJECT TO FLUCTUATIONS
