13 Nov 2019
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Wales Still In With A Shot
Wales are on the ropes, but their chances of qualifying for Euro 2020 are by no means over at this stage. Should Croatia round off their campaign with either a draw or a win hosting Slovakia, which they’ll need if they want to make certain they qualify themselves, then Wales will also progress if they can get a victory here and then follow it up with another against Hungary on the final day.
That’s owing to their superior head-to-head record with Slovakia, and working on the assumption that Slovakia, as expected, beat Azerbaijan at home in their last game.
Recent Form
It might not be totally in Wales’ hands then, but they should feel confident of playing their part in a dramatic finale to Group E.
Their hosts have acquired just the solitary point from six games and have shipped 14 goals so far, but despite losing 3-1 and 5-1 when Hungary and Slovakia came to town respectively, they shouldn’t be underestimated with that stalemate also coming in Baku to group leaders Croatia as recently as September.
Azerbaijan’s poor defensive record should encourage Wales, though the Dragons aren’t the biggest of scorers, with their 2-1 win over their opponents here in the reverse fixture the only time in their last 13 matches where they’ve scored more than once.
They did win another four of these fixtures 1-0, which would suit them nicely here, but only one of those came on their travels as the three points they earnt away at Ireland in the Nations League remains their sole victory in five competitive road trips under Ryan Giggs to date.
The visitors have been given a huge boost however, with both Aaron Ramsey and Gareth Bale available to start together for the first time in a year, even if Bale is a tad short of match fitness having not played since the last international break.
Giggs also has other big performers Joe Allen, Harry Wilson, Daniel James and Ethan Ampadu in the squad, which is absolutely massive for their chances of reaching successive Euro finals.
Wales are a healthy W9-D3-L4 since the start of the Euro 2016 qualification campaign when the key trio of Bale, Ramsey and Allen have all taken to the field from the off. Each of these came in competitive matches, while the only teams to prevent Wales winning were Denmark (twice), Ireland, Serbia, England, Bosnia and Belgium.
All of those sides are far better outfits than Azerbaijan, so Wales should be left devastated if they can’t take Group E to the final day.
Wales 2-1 Correct Score
However, Wales aren’t the sort of team to typically turn someone over completely. Their best results under current management have been a 6-0 friendly win away in China, which came in Giggs’ first game in charge as Bale hit top form, as well as a 4-1 success over Ireland in Cardiff during the Nations League 14 months ago now.
With key players back in the fold, Wales will be kicking themselves if they don’t take the spoils, but we’d only back them to win by just the solitary strike, while a repeat 2-1 success from the reverse fixture is worth a small punt at the prices.
0.5 pts Wales 2-1 Correct Score At 8/1
Azerbaijan Handicap Draw + 1 Goal At 11/5
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