20 Sept 2019
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Arsenal Recent Form
Arsenal may be reliant upon their home form having won just four of 16 league matches on their travels since December, but they’ve also begun to struggle at the Emirates too given that their last four fixtures since late April have yielded just the solitary victory.
That was a 2-1 success over Burnley, but while a stalemate in the North London derby a few weeks ago was hardly an embarrassment, a defeat to Palace and another draw with Brighton is not exactly an encouraging return.Arsenal may have full-backs Kieran Tierney and Hector Bellerin available soon, but it’s the centre-backs that cause distress.
Sokratis and David Luiz have committed a long list of errors already this season, Shkodran Mustafi has never impressed for the Gunners, while Rob Holding has only just returned from a 10-month injury nightmare. Even if he’s thrown into the starting line-up, it’s hard to imagine Englishman to be fully up to speed just yet.
Arsenal To Win And Both Teams To Score
Meanwhile, Villa may not have been prolific on their return to the top flight, but they have at least found the net in three of their five outings including against the best team they’ve yet faced – Spurs.
Further, both teams have actually scored in eight of Arsenal’s last nine encounters with promoted sides since March 2018, including all six under Unai Emery, but though the Gunners only went W5-D1-L3 across these outings overall, each defeat came on the road.
On home turf alone, they’ve won 19 of 21 unbeaten matches against promoted sides since 2012/13, so we’d be surprised if the visitors can net more than a mere consolation effort here.
Arsenal To Win 2-1
Aston Villa’s stalemate with a 10-man West Ham on Monday night will have felt like a loss. West Ham may have had produced a greater quantity of chances, but Villa can certainly boast having had the better ones, though a point was still enough to take them outside the bottom three all the same. They have however lost both away matches so far, so it’s not hard to see why the hosts are heavy favourites.
Going forwards, the Gunners haven’t dropped off too much as they’ve now scored at least twice in all but one of their last 12 on home turf, even if they kept just four clean sheets across these matches and none in the last four. However, given Arsenal have only scored more than twice home or away in 15 outings, and only once in their last 10 at the Emirates, the 2-1 correct score appeals at the prices.
Aubameyang To Score First
One player who should help Arsenal outgun their visitors is Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. The Gabon international hasn’t delivered many goals against the rest of the ‘Big Six’, but excluding those sides, the Gabon international has netted 33 times in 37 appearances where he’s played more than 20 minutes.
Limit this to games that he started and he’s scored the first of the match in eight of the last 14, including four of the last five. Given Alexandre Lacazette (the only other player to score more than twice for the Gunners this season) is out injured, no one is better placed to get the ball rolling.
Arsenal 2-1 Correct Score At 15/2
Arsenal To Win And Both Teams To Score At 6/4
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang First Goalscorer At 9/4
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