12 Jun 2019
In terms of high-pressure World Cup encounters, it will take a lot to top Argentina v Croatia when the two square off in their second Group D clash.
And the bulk of the pressure will be on Argentina, who were held to a 1-1 draw by Iceland on Saturday, after Lionel Messi missed a penalty for La Albiceleste.
Victory for Croatia, who defeated Nigeria 2-0, will take them through to the Round of 16 and the knockout stage, while Argentina will be left sweating on the outcome of the Nigeria v Iceland clash which kicks off at 4pm BST on Friday.
Argentina’s World Cup outright odds were unchanged following their drab draw and Croatia are still 28/1 to win it all.
Jorge Sampaoli’s side, runners-up four years ago, have now gone three games without a win in the World Cup, their last victory coming with a 1-0 win over Belgium four years ago, which was followed by a penalty-shoot-out win over the Netherlands in the semi-final.
He is likely to make a few changes following a dismal yet predictable draw against a gritty Iceland side, with 22-year-old Boca Juniors forward Cristian Pavon likely to replace Angel di Maria, as Argentina lacked a little width.
Paulo Dybala could also be in the starting line-up and he could play on the right flank instead of Maximiliano Meza, while PSG’s Giovani Lo Celso should also feature as defensive midfielder after skipping the first clash. With keeper Sergio Romero injured, they continue to rely on Willy Caballero in goal, and truth be told, he does not always inspire much confidence.
Still, all may not be lost. It was not that Argentina didn’t create – they just didn’t take their chances against Iceland - Messi had 11 shots at goal. However, it was a moment of brilliance from Sergio Aguero that picked the lock of the Icelandic fortress with a stunning strike after 19 minutes.
Argentina’s Group D odds to progress are still 1/4 and they have history on their side – La Albiceleste have not failed to win one of their opening two games at a World Cup since 1974.
Croatia, who have scored in each of their last five World Cup games, have not won back-to-back games at the finals since 1998 and are also likely to make changes, with coach Zlatio Dalic sending home striker Nikola Kalinic because he wouldn’t come off the bench as a substitute against Nigeria. Kalinic, who plays for AC Milan, claims he has a back injury, so Dalic now has just 22 players in the squad.
They have met each other four times, with Argentina winning twice and Croatia victorious once. The most recent meeting came in 2014 and saw Argentina win 2-1 with a Messi penalty proving decisive. It is perhaps worth noting that Croatia have lost all four previous World Cup meetings with South American sides, one in each of the last four tournaments.
Verdict:
Argentina 3-1 Croatia – the Correct Score Odds are 16/1.
The Messi factor is again going to be crucial. While Croatia’s midfield will provide a major puzzle to overcome, who is capable of shackling Messi and Aguero throughout the whole game? If Pavon plays, he adds an extra dimension to Argentina’s attack and while they are suspect at the back and struggled through qualifying, this could be the pivotal game where they get back on track and grow in confidence. An early goal would help and we look to Aguero to get on the scoresheet again.
Check out all the latest odds for Argentina v Croatia
