12 Jun 2019
This is the most wide-open of the eight NFL divisions. In the last five years, every team in it has claimed the division title, except Tennessee, who went close in the last two seasons with consecutive 9-7 records. This could come down to whichever quarterback is healthy, as three of the teams missed their starters at one point or another last term. We take a look at the four teams’ prospects…
HOUSTON TEXANS
We have to start at the most important position. QB Deshaun Watson flashed moments of brilliance as a rookie and in the six games he played, the Texans averaged 34.6 points per game. In the 10 games he was missing with a knee injury, they averaged 13.
ACL injuries take time to heal – it is thought that it takes about 18 months to fully recover – and so it will be a blessing if he returns to anything like his best and lift the franchise that went into a tailspin and ended with a 4-12 record. Let’s not forget, Watson threw 19 touchdown passes as a rookie, the most by any QB in history over through his first seven games.
It must also not be forgotten that three-time defensive player of the year J.J. Watt was missing for 11 games after breaking his left leg and his return is expected to spark a revival. The strength of the Texans’ top-ranked defense also hinges heavily on whether Watt’s surgically-repaired herniated disc in his back holds up.
DeAndre Hopkins is arguably the most underrated player in the division. In five seasons, Hopkins has caught passes from nine different QBs and averaged 63 receptions for 1,173 yards and seven touchdowns. With a full season of Watson throwing to him, he could become one of the league’s leading receivers, particularly since the speedy Will Fuller also presents a match-up nightmare for any defensive coordinator. Covering both men is going to be a task and a half if the NFL’s worst offensive line, which has received a makeover, is better. The Texans signed Zach Fulton, Senio Kelemete and Seantrel Henderson in free agency and there could be as many as four new starters around centre Nick Martin, who is coming off ankle surgery.
The same applies if the running game is to work effectively. It didn’t last year because of sub-standard blocking and Lamar Miller’s production dipped as a result. He gets help from last year’s third-round pick D’Onta Foreman, who could have a break-out year.
On the back-end, the signing of safety Tyrann Matthew (aka the Honey Badger), on a one-year, £7.5million prove-it deal looks sound business. He brings a feisty attitude and versatility to the defense that carried them to two successive AFC South titles before last year’s aberration.
They also signed former cornerback Aaron Colvin to a four-year $34m deal, since the secondary got picked on last year. Colvin was more of a slot corner in Jacksonville, but he has the capability of playing on the outside.
Houston’s Genting Casino odds of 17/10 make them the slight favourites to win an open division and plenty has to fall their way, but there will be a few takers, since their schedule is not the most testing. Their Super Bowl odds of 22/1 may also tempt some.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The Jaguars finally showed their teeth last season. Years of drafting high finally paid off and they signaled their intent early with a crushing 44-7 win over the Baltimore Ravens at Wembley Stadium in Week 3. They went on to secure their first AFC South title since the 2002 league realignment and advanced to the AFC Championship game.
As a result, their Genting Casino Super Bowl odds this season are 18/1, and having beaten Pittsburgh in a shootout in the divisional round of the playoffs, and with possible cracks in the foundation of perennial powerhouse New England, the Jaguars are being talked of as the potential AFC representative for the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Getting to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is not going to be a cakewalk, though. Getting out of their improving division will be hard enough.
They are a young team and should learn from the mistake of allowing New England to come back from a 20-10 fourth-quarter deficit in the AFC Championship game.
There are going to be a few who question the decision to give QB Blake Bortles a new three-year extension, rather than opting to find a more accomplished passer. But instead, vice president Tom Coughlin concentrated on supporting the limited Bortles with free-agent guard Andrew Norwell and ex-Colts receiver Donte Moncrief, and selected nippy receiver DJ Chark in the daft.
It is possible that the Jaguars will play two games in London in the near future, since they have had trouble filling the stadium at One TIAA Bank Field, and this season’s Wembley test is going to be a big one, facing the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles on October 28.
The lack of aggressive play-calling was an issue late last year, as they did not trust Bortles to send the ball downfield with accuracy. As a result, teams stacked the box and the Jaguars struggled to run the ball, yet we should expect Leonard Fournette (pictured above) to be among the NFL’s top playmakers this term. He broke 1,000 yards in his rookie season and scored nine touchdowns, but is also a threat catching the ball out of the backfield.
The Jags also got lucky with injuries last year, but if they keep cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and J.J. Bouye healthy, they will have the best secondary in the NFL. It also helps that their defensive line remains intact. They will have to make the most of it, because next year the Jags face salary cap issues in trying to keep Calais Campbell, Marcell Darius and Malik Jackson together.
The Jaguars are the Genting Casino 7/4 second favourites to win the AFC South, and that may be largely because they have not managed to be consistent from year to year. Some may be expecting a downturn.
TENNESSEE TITANS
The great job that GM Jon Robinson has done, transforming a 3-13 team into two winning seasons and a wild-card berth last year, cannot be overstated.
He made a bold move by firing head coach Mike Mularkey at the end of last season and replaced him with Mike Vrabel, who has no head coaching experience. Vrabel, 42, and Robinson were connected in New England – Vrabel as a linebacker and Robinson as personnel executive.
Vrabel has earned the instant respect of his players, flying around as a very hands-on teacher, and learned plenty in his seven years as an assistant coach at Ohio State in Houston. It is hard not to have learned plenty about the game from playing under Bill Belichick and Bill Cowher.
The Titans made the playoffs for the first time in nine years and won their first post-season game in 14 years when they rallied to beat Kansas City in the wildcard round.
Quarterback Marcus Mariota never looked comfortable last year, coming back from a surgically repaired fibula and he also struggled with a nagging hamstring injury, too. The constraints of a conservative offense did not help and it is hoped that first-time play-caller Matt LaFleur will coax the best out of the young passer.
The Titans have moved on from running back DeMarco Murray, whose productivity dived last season, and Derrick Henry is now the bell cow. They also signed Dion Lewis as a change of pace and they should offer a more diverse attack thank last season, with TE Delaine Walker still the top pass-catching threat. Keep a look-out for TE Jonnu Smith, who has a great ability to get open in the red zone and has good hands. Smith could have a big year.
The defense should be better with the addition of cornerback Malcolm Butler and rookie linebackers Rashaarn Evans and Harold Landry. Dean Pees, who has worked with Vrabel in the past, is a vastly experienced defensive coordinator and a good sounding board for the young head coach. He should get the best out of rookie pass-rusher Harold Landry, who was a second-round steal, and the impressively consistent Jurrell Casey, who remains the heart of the defensive unit.
In Ryan Succop and Brett Kern, the Titans have one of the best kicker and punter combinations in the NFL, and the return and coverage units should be better than average.
With Vrabel leading a new staff, there may be a few growing pains, yet by the time the Titans come to London to play the LA Chargers on October 21, we should have a better idea of whether they can go one better and take the AFC South or whether their Genting Casino odds of 10/3 are a shade too short.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The team with the biggest question at the quarterback position is undoubtedly the Colts. Andrew Luck’s two-year rehabilitation from multiple shoulder surgeries has been a major story, yet it was overshadowed in the off-season by the shenanigans that surrounded the search for a new head coach.
A year after Chris Ballard took over as GM, he was able to hire his first head coach, but not before Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels left them at the altar, changing his mind after agreeing to take the job. Ballard immediately turned to Frank Reich, who was an assistant with the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. His first task is to get Luck immersed in a new scheme and playing again.
Ballard is not about to forgive McDaniels. The Colts have a testy rivalry with the Patriots in any case and they face each other on October 4, a prime-time Thursday night Week 5 tussle in New England. There will be more than a taste of vengeance in the air, and if there is one game that Ballard wants the Colts to win, it is that one.
Ballard used two of his first three draft picks on guards in order to protect Luck and how quickly the offensive line can come together will be a major key to how well Reich’s fast-pace offense will fare. Offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni’s plan is to utilise an up-tempo passing game that will exert increased pressure on opposing defenses and help protect Luck.
Turning around a 4-12 franchise will depend on the offensive line, which has received a makeover with the addition of Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson, who was arguably the best player taken by any team in the draft. Left Tackle Anthony Castonzo and centre Ryan Kelly are also former first-round selections, so the potential to be a dominant unit is obvious.
The move to a more familiar 4-3 defensive alignment, which was the staple of Tony Dungy’s successful teams, seems a good idea on paper, but there are plenty of changes in personnel, including a new combination at the cornerback positions with Vontae Davis and Rahsaan Melvin departed. Second-year starter Quincy Wilson is penciled in as a starter, although the other spot is up for grabs.
The Colts should be better this term, but how much better is open to argument. While their Genting Casino odds of 11/2 to win the AFC South may appear generous, the Colts’ opening five games against Cincinnati, Washington, Philadelphia, Houston and New England may immediately put them on the back foot.
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